

Can We Trust The Employment Statistics?
On today’s show we are taking a closer look at the employment statistics that were released last Friday. The headline in the Wall Street Journal read “Hiring and Wages are Up, Reinforcing the Economy’s Resilience”. The subtitle to the article then reads: “The U.S. posted surprisingly large gains in both jobs and pay, even though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4%” CNBC said “U.S. adds a much-better-than-expected 272,000 jobs in May, but unemployment rate edges up to 4%.” Each month there are two surveys conducted. The establishment survey queries employers about how many people they have hired in the past month. The household survey queries families about their income and employment situation.
The bottom line of all the articles I read was that the establishment survey being this strong would signal to the Fed that the jobs market is still very robust and that they will have no choice but to maintain rates higher for longer.
Frankly this is a narrative that is supported by half truths at best. The economists at the Fed know how to read the household survey and draw a reasonable conclusion.
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