Peak Prosperity It’s Time to Believe Your Lying Eyes
Nov 28, 2025
The stock market is soaring while the real economy is struggling, sparking a discussion about the disconnect between the two. Consumer sentiment hits historic lows, revealing economic and political implications. Rising living costs and property tax spikes add to the stress faced by retirees. There's a critical examination of AI investments and their profitability amid market concentration. The effects of government payroll growth and fiscal responsibility are questioned, while historic valuations raise concerns about potential market declines.
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Consumer Sentiment Is Alarmingly Low
- Consumer sentiment plunged to the second-lowest reading in history, signaling broad pullback risk.
- Low sentiment can become self-fulfilling as households cut spending and delay plans.
Clients Report Squeezed Budgets
- Paul described clients calling in unexpectedly worried about rising property taxes and insurance costs.
- He said those grassroots pressures amplify emotional market reactions even if portfolios appear OK.
Young Adults Are Near Despair
- Sentiment among 18–34 year olds is near all-time lows, worse than during the pandemic and recession.
- This extreme malaise fuels radical political movements and generational unrest.