How the war in Ukraine has reshaped Asian foreign policy
Oct 26, 2024
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Join John Everard, a former British ambassador to North Korea, Oriana Skylar Mastro, a Stanford political science professor, and James D Brown, a political science expert on Japan-Russia relations, as they delve into the ripple effects of the Ukraine war across Asia. They discuss North and South Korea's shifting alliances, China's strategic maneuvers, and Japan's changing role in security. The conversation highlights regional tensions and Japan’s constitutional debates around military forces, painting a vivid picture of a dynamically evolving geopolitical landscape.
North Korea's troop deployment to Russia aims to strengthen its alliance with China while risking potential military setbacks in Ukraine.
Japan's upcoming elections could redefine its defense policies amidst rising threats from North Korea and China, supporting a more robust regional security approach.
Deep dives
North Korea's Troop Deployment and Strategic Gains
North Korea's troop deployment to Russia serves multiple strategic purposes that may reshape regional dynamics. By showing support for Russia, North Korea aims to solidify its alliance with China and enhance its own military experience, which has been lacking since the Korean War. In return for its involvement, North Korea is likely to negotiate for military technology transfers that could advance its nuclear capabilities, potentially altering the power balance on the Korean Peninsula. However, deploying troops close to Ukraine poses substantial risks, including the possibility of defections and ineffective combat performance, which could embarrass the North Korean regime.
South Korea's Reaction to North Korean Troops
South Korea's government is significantly alarmed by the reported presence of North Korean troops in Russia, viewing it as a direct red line that threatens regional stability. This development could prompt South Korea to reconsider its previous policies of restraint, including its stance on providing military assistance to Ukraine. South Korea possesses a sophisticated arms industry capable of supplying high-quality munitions, and if pushed, could escalate its military support for Ukraine, thereby shifting the battlefield dynamics. While the South Korean public has reacted with relative indifference, the government is concerned about the implications of increased international focus on North Korean activities amid ongoing tensions.
China's Perspective on Ukraine and Taiwan
China closely monitors the developments in Ukraine as it assesses the potential global implications for its own ambitions regarding Taiwan. Initially, China's leadership may have underestimated the scale of the conflict, expecting it to resemble past engagements like Crimea, but subsequent events have led to a more cautious evaluation. The strained relationship between Russia and Ukraine has prompted Chinese leaders to scrutinize military logistics and command structures, emphasizing the need for robust preparation before any assertive action towards Taiwan. As a result, the Chinese view the war not only as a regional issue but also as a significant factor that could influence their calculations regarding Taiwan.
Japan's Security Evolution and US Relations
Japan's evolving security policies, amidst concerns over North Korean and Chinese threats, highlight its support for Ukraine as a demonstration of solidarity with the Western-led order. The upcoming elections present a pivotal moment for Japan's defense approach, particularly regarding its constitution, which currently restricts its military capabilities. There is a growing discourse around the idea of a formalized security alliance in the Asia-Pacific region, similar to NATO, as Japan seeks to take on a more active role in regional defense. However, concerns about future US leadership and its implications for defense commitments weigh heavily on Japan, especially in light of potential shifts under a new presidential administration.
The war in Ukraine and Russia has affected East Asian foreign policy in more ways than you might expect. We explore North and South Korea's involvement in the conflict with former UK ambassador John Everard, China’s watchful eye with Oriana Skylar Mastro and the pivotal forthcoming elections in Japan with James D Brown.