Tomorrow - ein McKinsey Podcast Strategische Wende: Wie Europa seine Verteidigungsindustrie transformiert
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Sep 24, 2025 Björn Hagemann, a Senior Partner at McKinsey specializing in security and defense, discusses Europe's pivotal transformation in defense spending. The conversation highlights the urgent investments needed to meet NATO's 3.5% GDP target by 2030. Hagemann explores various funding scenarios and the critical allocation of resources between equipment and personnel. He also delves into pivotal technology trends, such as autonomy and software, and the resulting paradigm shift in the defense industry, emphasizing the need for innovation and European collaboration.
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Scale Of Required Defense Investment
- Europe must scale defense budgets massively to approach NATO's 3.5% GDP target by 2030.
- McKinsey estimates between €350 billion and €1.74 trillion for European NATO states depending on scenario speed.
Speed, Not Goal, Drives Scenarios
- The key uncertainty is speed of budget increases, not the ultimate goal of reaching 3.5% GDP.
- McKinsey models several scenarios from minimal committed spending to a balanced acceleration toward the target.
Equipment Will Absorb Most Funding
- Most additional defense spending will flow into equipment rather than personnel.
- Personnel expansion lags materially behind equipment needs, so procurement and production scale-up dominates budgets.