#119 Causal Inference, Fiction Writing and Career Changes, with Robert Kubinec

Nov 13, 2024

Robert Kubinec, an assistant professor of political science at the University of South Carolina, dives into the complexities of studying corruption and the innovative survey techniques that can aid in obtaining honest data. He shares insights on how Bayesian methods enhance research by estimating latent variables and uncertain outcomes. Additionally, Kubinec discusses his novel, 'The Bayesian Hitman,' highlighting how fiction writing can improve academic skills. The conversation emphasizes the importance of community in statistics and the potential of real-time surveys to transform social science research.

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Episode notes

Intro

00:00 • 2min

Bayesian Insights in Political Science

02:26 • 15min

From Government to Academia: A Personal Journey

16:59 • 28min

Bridging Statistics and Storytelling

45:02 • 31min

Da Vinci's Legacy: Art and Science Unleashed

01:16:28 • 5min

Reflections on Conference Experiences and Cultural Expectations

01:21:35 • 2min

Episode Recap and Listener Engagement

01:23:30 • 1min

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Takeaways:

Bob's research focuses on corruption and political economy.
Measuring corruption is challenging due to the unobservable nature of the behavior.
The challenge of studying corruption lies in obtaining honest data.
Innovative survey techniques, like randomized response, can help gather sensitive data.
Non-traditional backgrounds can enhance statistical research perspectives.
Bayesian methods are particularly useful for estimating latent variables.
Bayesian methods shine in situations with prior information.
Expert surveys can help estimate uncertain outcomes effectively.
Bob's novel, 'The Bayesian Hitman,' explores academia through a fictional lens.
Writing fiction can enhance academic writing skills and creativity.
The importance of community in statistics is emphasized, especially in the Stan community.
Real-time online surveys could revolutionize data collection in social science.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to Bayesian Statistics and Bob Kubinec

06:01 Bob's Academic Journey and Research Focus

12:40 Measuring Corruption: Challenges and Methods

18:54 Transition from Government to Academia

26:41 The Influence of Non-Traditional Backgrounds in Statistics

34:51 Bayesian Methods in Political Science Research

42:08 Bayesian Methods in COVID Measurement

51:12 The Journey of Writing a Novel

01:00:24 The Intersection of Fiction and Academia

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