Ken McElroy Show

The Job Market Isn’t Crashing in 2026 - Something Bigger Is Changing

Jan 8, 2026
In 2026, confusion reigns in the job and housing markets, but it may not be as dire as it seems. Employers are leveraging AI to cut costs and streamline operations, leading to changing job dynamics. Amid rising layoffs, economic growth persists, complicating the picture. A supply surge in housing is expected early in the year, giving buyers more options in a renter's market. The discussion touches on the impact of unemployment on spending, while AI's gradual influence on various jobs raises questions about the future workforce.
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INSIGHT

Mixed Signals Mask Structural Change

  • The job market shows mixed signals because layoffs and GDP growth are happening simultaneously.
  • This creates confusing data that masks structural shifts rather than an imminent crash.
INSIGHT

Defaults Are The Missing Crash Ingredient

  • Ken argues a true crash requires widespread bankruptcies and defaults, which he doesn't see.
  • Without mass defaults, a 2008-style repricing is unlikely in 2026.
INSIGHT

AI Will Reshape Work Gradually

  • AI adoption will accelerate job changes but will roll out slowly across companies.
  • Early stages mean many roles can be optimized, not instantly eliminated.
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