John Sides, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University, shares insights from his research on past presidential elections. Ed Carr, deputy editor of The Economist, discusses the global implications of a potential second Trump term. They analyze current polling, highlighting Trump's lead in key states and Biden's challenges with approval ratings and voter enthusiasm. The panel emphasizes the complexities of voter demographics and local issues that could swing the election, along with the broader impact of U.S. politics on international relations.
A second term for Donald Trump could have serious consequences for the world beyond America, with the potential for unorthodox policies and a disregard for the rule of law and international alliances.
The 2024 presidential election remains uncertain, with polls a year before the election having little predictive value, highlighting the need for improvement and increased enthusiasm among supporters for Joe Biden's campaign.
Deep dives
Foreign Policy Implications of a Trump Second Term
A second term for Donald Trump could have serious consequences for the world beyond America. While his transactional approach to foreign policy in his first term may not have been as bad as feared, a second term could see Trump unencumbered by reality and lacking solid values. His unorthodox policies, such as universal tariffs, could defy comprehension and harm America's interests. Moreover, his disregard for the rule of law and potential retribution against his enemies could undermine America's credibility abroad. This has already strained alliances and could embolden countries to test the status quo. The world in 2023 is more volatile and less assured than it was in 2016, creating a risky environment for a second Trump term.
The Uncertainty of the 2024 Election
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the outcome remains uncertain. Polls a year before the election have little predictive value, making it difficult to determine who the favorite is at this early stage. Although recent polls have shown Trump leading in battleground states, it is important to consider national polls that depict a tight race between Trump and Biden. Concerns arise for Biden's campaign, highlighting the need for improvement and increased enthusiasm among supporters. The familiarity of both candidates may lead to less movement in opinion polls, but upside potential exists for Biden to gain support among Democrats who are currently not enthused about his candidacy. Factors such as changes in approval ratings, economic performance, and voters' impressions of the candidates can influence the outcome.
Challenges to American Democracy
The 2024 election also raises concerns about the state of American democracy. Trump's refusal to accept the results of the previous election and ongoing trials pose fundamental challenges to the credibility of American institutions and the rule of law. The declining public trust in American institutions adds an additional layer of complexity to the election. The erosion of faith in elections, courts, and the media undermines the core values and ideals of America, creating a cancerous effect on the nation. Understanding the motivations of voters, especially those who do not share the concerns about Trump's impact on democracy, is crucial in addressing these fundamental challenges.
The Focus on Issues and Voters' Interests
To navigate the uncertainties and challenges of the 2024 election, a granular approach is needed to understand the decisions of voters in specific states and constituencies. The focus should shift from a high-level examination of the future of American democracy to the issues that matter to voters and how the candidates address those concerns. Exploring the motivations and interests of voters in swing states and Republican strongholds will provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the election. By examining the impact of policies, public opinion shifts, and the local factors influencing voter decisions, a clearer understanding of the election's outcome can be gained.
If the election were held tomorrow, Donald Trump would probably be the favourite to win. How should we be thinking about the race with a year to go? And how can the world outside of America prepare itself for the possibility of a second Trump term?
John Prideaux hosts with Charlotte Howard and Idrees Kahloon. They’re joined by Vanderbilt University’s John Sides and The Economist’s Ed Carr.
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