Dr. Larry Sabato, Political Analyst & Professor of Politics at the University of Virgina

Willy welcomes Dr. Larry Sabato. He is a political scientist, political analyst, and the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia. He is the founder and director of the university's Center for Politics, which publishes Sabato's Ball, his online newsletter where he writes electoral predictions and analysis. Dr. Larry Sabato begins by discussing remaining nonpartisan in an increasingly divisive environment. He is only interested in picking the winners and claims to have a good idea of where the upcoming results are going. He aims to get people involved and excited about politics. Research done by the Center of Politics interviewed 1,000 Donald Trump supporters and 1,000 Joe Biden supporters, which resulted in 51% of Trump supporters believing that Democratic states should secede from the union, and 42% of Biden supporters wish the same for Republican states. Nowadays, people feel strongly about their campaigns that even some Americans don't believe that Biden was legitimately elected despite zero evidence of fraud. People think they're entitled to facts and opinions in a no-facts era. Dr. Sabato calls for returning to basics and the civic education of young people. Although existing systems work, Dr. Sabato recommends voting on paper to eliminate questioning. Having computers with the Internet creates doubts and is at risk of hacking. It's difficult for a third party to emerge even though it can change political dynamics. The two major parties comprise most of Congress and wouldn't want a smaller slice of the pie. Gerrymandering is a big issue, with Democrats in Virginia making decisions that, in the end, favored Republicans. Dr. Sabato talks about open primaries where people vote for four candidates in order, and each candidate receives a certain number of votes based on how high they are ranked. This system can produce centrist results, and Dr. Sabato is open to this reform. Despite Donald Trump receiving a larger turnout than usual, Dr. Sabato still hopes more people will be voting this year. Moving on to the gubernatorial elections, he describes how "hypocrisy is the lifeblood of politics." He predicts Brian Kemp winning even without a runoff. He explains how split-ticket results are rare, as their parties determine 90% of voters. He says we shouldn't believe the Gallup polls, and split ticketing mainly happened in the 70s. An entirely Republican sweep isn't possible, one of the reasons being the overturning of Roe v. Wade. He foresees Republicans winning Oregon, Wisconsin, and Kansas. Although Massachusetts and Maryland are Republican, Dr. Sabato thinks they will lose in a landslide. He believes that Sonny Perdue leaning heavily in Trump's direction was a mistake that ended his career. He explains how the Republican party is divided into two halves: one is entirely dedicated to Trump, and the other is much more conservative than Larry Hogan. He predicts Jared Polis is not running against Biden, but reruns are possible. It's also expected that Kevin McCarthy will win as a speaker. He describes how every president will experience one or both Houses of Congress controlled by the other party, but veto power will be exercised to counter it.

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