Hub Podcasts Who are the winners and losers of Trump's tariffs?
Sep 5, 2025
Joseph Steinberg, an economist from the University of Toronto specializing in trade and macroeconomics, dives into the mixed impacts of Trump's tariffs. He reveals how these policies could help low-tech sectors like toy manufacturing while hurting higher-value industries such as automobiles. Steinberg also discusses the broader implications for Canadian manufacturing and the complexities of job creation versus loss, illustrating the nuanced trade-offs that come with increasing tariffs. Get ready to rethink the effects of these economic policies!
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Short Pain, Modest Long‑Run Gain
- Tariffs can raise U.S. manufacturing employment in the long run but cause short- to medium-term declines.
- The long-run gains take years and initial pain can persist for two to five years as supply chains adjust.
Growth Flows Down The Tech Ladder
- Tariff-driven growth concentrates in low‑tech, commoditized consumer goods rather than high‑value manufacturing.
- Sectors like autos, heavy machinery, and steel would shrink while 'toy' manufacturing expands.
How Tariffs Reallocate Demand
- Tariffs make foreign goods relatively more expensive and push consumers to substitute domestic products.
- That substitution reduces trade deficits particularly in the commoditized consumer‑goods ('toy') sector.
