Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, shares his deep insights on the Syrian conflict. He discusses his firsthand experiences under the Assad regime and the evolving power of militant groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham amidst regional changes. The conversation also highlights the complexities involving Iran-backed Shia militias and their impact on Iraq-U.S. relations. Additionally, Tabler explores the geopolitical chess match between Israel and Hezbollah post-civil war, shedding light on the regional power dynamics at play.
The collapse of the Assad regime, largely due to the absence of Iranian and Russian support, has dramatically altered regional power dynamics.
The uncertain future of Syria, with potential for both unification under a new regime and fragmentation into sectarian enclaves, raises significant stability concerns.
Deep dives
Fall of the Assad Regime
The Assad regime in Syria has collapsed, marking a significant shift in the power dynamics of the region. Sunni rebels quickly overran the country, leading to the removal of one of the most notorious dictatorships known for its severe human rights violations. While the ousting may suggest a promising future for many Syrians, concerns remain about the potential rise of extremist groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which may fill the power vacuum. The episode raises questions about the United States' role in regime change and the mistakes made in previous interventions in the Middle East.
Regional Dynamics and Key Players
The absence of support from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia significantly contributed to the Assad regime's downfall. These key allies failed to assist Assad as they were preoccupied with their own regional conflicts, including Iran’s response to Israeli strikes and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The resulting vacuum was swiftly exploited by opposition groups, leading to a rapid and unexpected shift in power. This scenario has opened the door for discussions on potential future interventions, revealing the delicate balance of power among regional actors.
Future of Syria and Its Implications
The future landscape of Syria is uncertain, with debates over whether the country will unify under a new regime or fracture into sectarian enclaves. Various factions, including Sunni jihadi groups and Kurdish populations, may vie for control, creating a complex and divided political environment. Experts suggest that, without significant intervention, Syria may see a return to conditions reminiscent of the early conflict days, where outside influences dictate the internal dynamics. With a lack of clear governance, the likelihood of regional instability persists, raising concerns for both local and international stakeholders.
FDD Executive Director Jon Schanzer delivers timely situational updates and analysis, followed by a conversation with Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at The Washington Institute.