S7 Ep3: Making a responsible budget with Sir Robert Chote
Jan 29, 2025
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Sir Robert Chote, former head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Office for Budget Responsibility, now chairs the UK Statistics Authority. He discusses the critical roles of these institutions in shaping UK economic policy and managing budget forecasts. Chote addresses the challenges of post-COVID fiscal management, emphasizing data transparency in decision-making. He shares insights on key drivers for economic growth like education and infrastructure while reflecting on his transition from journalism to policy-making, blending humor with serious analysis.
The IFS and OBR play vital roles in providing independent assessments of the UK’s economic policies, influencing public discourse and decision-making.
Effective data sharing among government departments is essential for improving policy outcomes, although privacy concerns often impede progress toward integration.
Deep dives
The Role of the IFS and OBR in Economic Policy
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) play crucial roles in assessing the UK’s economic landscape through independent analysis of government policy on taxation and spending. The IFS is recognized for providing unbiased evaluations that influence public discourse and policy decisions of the government. Conversely, the OBR is tasked with overseeing the sustainability of government fiscal strategies, offering assessments that can steer political direction away from fiscal irresponsibility. These institutions strive for transparency and accountability, ensuring that their forecasts accurately reflect the economic realities and potential outcomes that arise from policymakers' choices.
Balancing Independence and Political Pressure
The OBR operates within a unique framework designed to maintain its independence, although questions arise regarding the influence exerted by the Treasury. Its forecasts for economic performance do not deviate significantly from other established predictions, reinforcing its position as a reliable authority despite potential political pressures. Many criticisms against the OBR stem from the notion that its findings may constrain government ambitions and policies, as evidenced during Liz Truss's controversial premiership and budget decisions. The organization's cautious approach aims to present realistic assessments rather than speculative forecasts that could mislead policymakers.
Public Investment and Long-Term Economic Growth
Critics of the OBR argue that it has underestimated the long-term benefits of public investment, especially following the Brexit financial turmoil. While acknowledging that substantial investments can yield significant returns, especially in infrastructure, the organization emphasizes that immediate gains may not be visible within the short-term budgeting cycles it typically evaluates. There’s a recognition that complex economic transformations require patience and evidence collection over time, necessitating courage from governments to champion long-term deterrents. The OBR aims to contextualize these investments in a larger economic framework, aligning forecasts with realistic assessments of the time required to see impacts.
The Importance of Data Sharing for Government Efficiency
Effective data sharing among government departments holds the potential to enhance policy-making by leveraging insights from diverse datasets, facilitating better public services and economic understanding. Concerns over data privacy and departmental competition often hinder progress towards a more integrated approach to data utilization. Nevertheless, proponents argue that a culture shift toward proactive data sharing could lead to improved policy outcomes and public trust. By establishing frameworks for secure data integration, the government could capitalize on its extensive data resources to drive informed decision-making across various sectors.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies - or IFS - has become the nation’s go to institution for judgements about tax, spending and borrowing. And the Office for Budget Responsibility – the OBR – is the independent official watchdog that assess the viability and sustainability of the government’s economic plans.
Our guest today, Sir Robert Chote has run both organisations and knows better than anyone on the planet how they both work. He now heads the UK Statistics Authority.
Season 7 of the We Society Podcast from the Academy of Social Sciences continues to tackle the big questions through a social science lens. Throughout this series, you'll be hearing some of the best ideas to shape the way we live.
Hosted by journalist and Academy President Will Hutton, we interview some of Britain’s top social scientists and public figures from across the globe to explore their evidence-led solutions to society’s most pressing problems.
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This is the first episode of Season 7, and there will be episodes released every week so be sure to subscribe and rate the podcast.