Maggie Lake Talking Markets
Episode 31: Stocks to Rebound, But There's Trouble Ahead. With Vincent DeLuard.
Mar 24, 2025
Vincent DeLuard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, shares his insightful market predictions. He anticipates a stock market rebound before a challenging summer and a tumultuous fall. The conversation dives into bond yields, the influence of tariffs, and the enduring strength of the US consumer. DeLuard also discusses the implications of rising bond yields and potential capital gains taxes, while drawing parallels between current economic conditions and the stagflation of the 1970s, all set against a backdrop of evolving geopolitical dynamics.
36:06
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Quick takeaways
- Vincent DeLuard suggests that we may witness a stock market rebound in spring, followed by a challenging fall due to rising bond yields.
- The podcast emphasizes the need for investors to be cautious about equity markets amid changing global capital flows and emerging market opportunities.
Deep dives
Spring Rebound and Market Predictions
A forecast for the rest of 2025 indicates that the stock market may experience a spring rebound followed by a summer lull, ultimately leading to a potential correction in the fall. Recent market dynamics show a bounce back in stocks due to rebalancing activities by various funds at quarter-end, as many investors had previously become underweight in stocks. Specific seasonal factors, such as tax payments and the expected calming effects of earnings reports, also contribute to this short-term recovery. However, increasing bond yields, projected to reach around 4.5% to 4.7% by summer, are likely to strain the market later in the year.
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