Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 31: Stocks to Rebound, But There's Trouble Ahead. With Vincent DeLuard.
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Mar 24, 2025 
Vincent DeLuard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, shares his insightful market predictions. He anticipates a stock market rebound before a challenging summer and a tumultuous fall. The conversation dives into bond yields, the influence of tariffs, and the enduring strength of the US consumer. DeLuard also discusses the implications of rising bond yields and potential capital gains taxes, while drawing parallels between current economic conditions and the stagflation of the 1970s, all set against a backdrop of evolving geopolitical dynamics.
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Stock Market Outlook
- Stocks may rebound before a sideways summer and a fall correction.
- This prediction hinges on bond yields rising, impacting liquidity and growth expectations.
Equity Bottom
- The bottom for equities depends on whether the bottom is in for bond yields.
- If yields rise, equity risk premium decreases, leading to a second leg down.
U.S. Duration Problem
- The U.S. faces a duration problem due to short-term debt issuance.
- This requires constant refinancing and makes the market sensitive to rising yields.