The Bulletin with UBS UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025
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Oct 5, 2025 Matthias Holzhey, a real estate economist and the lead author of the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, dives into the 2025 housing market landscape. He discusses the stagnation of global house prices and the impact of high interest rates. Listeners learn which cities like Miami, Tokyo, and Zurich are facing the highest bubble risks and the role of regulatory measures in market corrections. Holzhey also tackles issues of affordability, highlighting inflation effects and the challenging price-to-income ratios while offering key takeaways for investors.
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Methodology Behind The Index
- The Grebi quantifies bubble risk by comparing house prices to market fundamentals using a consistent method across 21 cities.
- The study identifies recurring patterns from historical bubbles to create comparable city rankings.
Stagnant Prices And Rising Regulation
- Global house prices are stagnating because prevailing interest rates remain too high relative to housing markets.
- Regulation is increasingly shaping price dynamics as policymakers try to tackle affordability across many cities.
Top-Ranked Cities For Bubble Risk
- Miami, Tokyo and Zurich top the bubble-risk ranking, though risk has declined in Tokyo and Miami while Zurich's has risen.
- Tokyo and Zurich show exuberance driven by relatively low local rates, while Miami combines strong fundamentals and foreign speculation.