Predicting the impact of upcoming elections in Europe, US, and UK. Discussing EU elections, Belgian presidency, and conflicts in Ukraine and Israel-Palestine. Focus on finalizing negotiations, EU enlargement, Olympic Games, and Notre Dame reopening. Criticism of Macron's New Year's address and concerns about Paris' readiness for the Olympics. Speculation about bed bug infestations as Russian propaganda. Winter weather in Northern Europe. Exploring the border conflict and challenges faced by Donald Tusk's government in Poland.
The upcoming 2024 elections in Europe and beyond raise concerns about the rise of far-right parties and their potential impact on topics like migration and the Green Deal.
The outcome of the EU elections in 2024 will shape the selection of key roles in Europe and influence European strategies, including concerns about Hungary's position on issues like financial aid for Ukraine and the EU's role in addressing conflicts in the Middle East.
Deep dives
Election year and political combat
In 2024, there will be elections in over 50 countries, including the US, Mexico, India, and Ukraine, with politicians vying for voter support. Politico Europe is gearing up to track the EU elections, where the 400 million voters will have their say in June. Parties are raising funds and formulating talking points for the elections. The chaos of the past decade has taught us to brace for political tremors that could upend national politics and the global order.
Concerns about the far right
The rise of far-right parties, such as Alternative for Germany (AFD) in Germany and National Rally in France, is a big concern. The AFD is polling at 22% nationally and even higher in some states. The far right's potential success in upcoming elections is a worry for political leaders who aim to prevent their rise. The outcome of these elections could impact the discussions on the European Commission's priorities, including topics like migration and the Green Deal.
Political implications for European roles
The upcoming EU elections could impact the selection of key roles in Europe, including the president of the European Commission and the European Council. Ursula von der Leyen's potential for a second term is in question, and other candidates are being considered. The political landscape in various EU countries, as well as the overall election results, will shape these decisions. Concerns about Hungary's position on issues like financial aid for Ukraine are also influencing European strategies.
Ukraine, NATO, and the Middle East
The conflict in Ukraine continues, with Russia launching intensive attacks and Ukraine defending itself. The war fatigue and potential return of Donald Trump are worries for Ukraine. NATO-Ukraine meetings are addressing the challenges, but limitations on the use of Western weapons are hindering Ukraine's ability to respond effectively. In the Middle East, conflicts in Gaza, attacks by Houthi rebels, and Hezbollah are destabilizing the region and drawing international concerns. The EU plays a secondary role to the US in addressing these conflicts.
This isn't just any new year — 2024 in the political calendar means mega elections in Europe, the U.S., the U.K. and beyond. Our EU Confidential crew predicts how these elections could impact pressing issues around the European Union.
Bringing together the collective knowledge of some of POLITICO's best and brightest reporters — Barbara Moens, Clea Caulcutt and Hans von der Burchard — we discuss the June vote that could see 400 million Europeans take part, the top EU jobs up for grabs, the Belgian presidency of the Council of the EU which started on January 1 and the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris.
Later, host Sarah Wheaton is joined by POLITICO's senior policy editor and defense expert Jan Cienski to talk about the future of the war in Ukraine, Kyiv's fears over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, the ongoing conflict in Gaza, as well as Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Herculean tasks after Poland's recent elections.