Great Depression 2.0 Warning: Economist Explains Ugly Side Of Tariffs | Steve Hanke
Nov 28, 2024
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Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, dives deep into the implications of Trump's tariffs, linking them to historical trends like the Smoot-Hawley tariffs. He explores the potential for trade collapse and rising unemployment, emphasizing tariffs’ impacts on consumers and the U.S. dollar. Hanke also shares insights on inflation dynamics, questioning if it's returning, and discusses Bitcoin's current rally, examining its speculative nature and government involvement. It's a thought-provoking analysis of today's economic challenges.
The tariff policies reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley era could disrupt international trade, escalate unemployment, and strain global relationships.
Inflationary pressures may arise from past money supply increases, highlighting the significance of understanding monetary policies for future economic predictions.
Deep dives
The Impact of Tariffs on the U.S. Economy
The introduction of tariffs, particularly under the Trump administration, has potential parallels to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs which contributed to the Great Depression. While the tariffs initially aimed to protect American businesses, they could lead to significant backlash and retaliation from trading partners, further diminishing international trade. Experts suggest that such protectionist measures could create tension in global relationships and disrupt supply chains, particularly for industries reliant on imports. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead to sluggish economic growth and increased unemployment, particularly in sectors that depend on exports.
China's Countermeasures Against U.S. Tariffs
China possesses various strategies to counteract U.S. tariffs and could significantly impact the American economy if pushed. One potential move is the devaluation of the yuan, which would directly counter U.S. tariffs by making Chinese exports cheaper. Furthermore, China could restrict exports of critical materials, threatening industries that rely on those resources, effectively using economic leverage against the U.S. Such responses highlight the precarious nature of the trade relationship, suggesting that aggressive tariff policies can provoke strong and adverse reactions from China.
Concerns Over Inflation and Money Supply
Current inflation rates and the implications of money supply changes play crucial roles in the economic outlook, with the PCE index indicating a continued rise in inflation. There is a belief that inflationary pressures may stem from past increases in the money supply, which individuals often overlook when correlating price rises with economic indicators. Economists caution against simplistic analyses that ignore the underlying monetary factors, highlighting the importance of understanding past monetary policies to predict future economic conditions. A broad contraction in the money supply is concerning and could signify a historical repeat of economic downturns if not managed properly.
Skepticism Surrounding a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
Proposals for a federal Bitcoin strategic reserve have been met with significant skepticism, with critics labeling the idea as economically foolish. The feasibility of this plan raises questions about the government's track record on investment, suggesting that any attempt to integrate Bitcoin into a federal reserve structure could yield unsatisfactory results. Detractors emphasize that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and is primarily a speculative asset, making it an unreliable choice for a strategic reserve. Ultimately, the proposal reflects a misunderstanding of both Bitcoin's volatility and the complexities of government investment strategies.
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Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, discusses the likely effects of Trump's tariffs on the economy and the U.S. dollar. Hanke also discusses his outlook for inflation and his views on the latest Bitcoin price rally.
*This video was recorded on November 27, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:55 - Smoot-Hawley vs. Trump tariffs
4:43 - Collapse in trade?
6:15 - Tariffs and unemployment rate
13:45 - Tariffs’ impacts on consumers
16:33 - Tariffs and the U.S. dollar
19:55 - China’s ultimate weapon
23:00 - Is inflation coming back?
30:20 - Department of Government Efficiency
42:10 - Scott Bessent’s 3-3-3 policy
47:33 - Bitcoin strategic reserve
54:10 - E-cash
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