Full Signal Jerome Powell is WRONG on the economy | Jay Hatfield, Infrastructure Capital
Jan 13, 2026
Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors and a noted contrarian macro investor, dives into his critiques of Jerome Powell and the Fed's policies. He argues that the Fed relies on outdated data and lacks monetary expertise, advocating for reforms to the 2% inflation target. Hatfield contrasts real-time inflation with the Fed's measures, underscores the risks of political influence on the Fed, and discusses how money supply impacts market forecasts. He even suggests Christopher Waller as a better choice for Fed chair.
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Monetarist View: Money Growth Drove Inflation
- Jay Hatfield argues inflation followed excessive money supply growth during the pandemic, not transitory supply shocks.
- He uses real-time shelter data (Zillow, Apartment List) to show core PCE near 2% and CPI around 1.2%.
2% Target Is Too Rigid
- Hatfield criticizes the Fed's outdated inflation measurement and forecasting models that lag the real economy.
- He calls the strict 2% target arbitrary and prefers a flexible 2–3% range tied to judgment and history.
Monetarism Lost Ground In Universities
- Hatfield recounts that monetarism faded in academia as Keynesian thought dominated universities.
- He ties that shift to political preferences for rationalizing larger government spending.