Talking About the Future
Jean-Pierre Beugoms and Scott Eastman on Ukraine
Jun 24, 2024
Superforecasters Jean-Pierre Beugoms and Scott Eastman discuss the future of the war in Ukraine, analyzing military conflicts, challenges faced by Ukraine and Russia, potential scenarios, Russia's advances in Europe, and manpower challenges in the conflict.
46:01
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Quick takeaways
- Russia's manpower advantage and industrial base present significant advantages in prolonged conflict.
- Allied countries' industrial base and technology like drones influence war dynamics and prolong stalemates.
Deep dives
The Structural Factors in Analyzing the War in Ukraine
Analyzing the war in Ukraine involves looking at military, civilian, and civil-military factors. Under military factors, considerations include material capacity, troop strength, weapon effectiveness, and morale. Civilian factors encompass demographics, political support, and population size. Civil-military aspects involve economic factors, industrial capacity, logistical support, and leadership. Factors like Russia's manpower advantage and industrial base provide significant advantages in a prolonged conflict.
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