7am George Megalogenis on who will win the next election
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Dec 5, 2024 George Megalogenis, author of *Minority Report: The New Shape of Australian Politics*, delves into the shifting dynamics of Australian politics. He discusses how the electorate is splintering, challenging the viability of major parties. The conversation highlights the implications of The Voice referendum and the risk of a minority government shaping future elections. Megalogenis also reflects on the decline of traditional party support and the potential chaos of a hung parliament, emphasizing the need for new political alliances.
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Decline of the Duopoly
- Since 2010, Australian elections have seen a consistent swing away from both major parties.
- This trend, unprecedented even during the Depression, signifies a shift in voter preferences.
Ineffective Scare Campaigns
- Scare campaigns about minority governments are ineffective given the significant portion of the electorate voting for independents.
- Telling a third of the voters they were wrong last time is not an effective engagement strategy.
Voice Referendum Dynamics
- The Voice referendum results revealed a surprising initial majority support, driven by Indigenous Australians and non-English speakers.
- This majority eroded due to a disinformation campaign targeting migrant communities.