War on the Rocks The Puzzling Diplomacy over Ukraine's Future
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Feb 28, 2025 
Michael Kofman, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, brings his expertise on Russian military affairs, joined by Justin Logan from the Cato Institute, specializing in defense policy, and Liana Fix, a Council on Foreign Relations Fellow focused on European security. They dive into the chaotic diplomacy surrounding Ukraine's future, discussing the role of minerals, the influence of Trump on U.S.-Ukraine relations, and prospects for a European peacekeeping force. Their lively debates uncover the complexities of security guarantees and the shifting dynamics of European defense strategies.
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Trump's Perspective on Ukraine
- Trump prioritizes normalizing US-Russia relations, viewing Ukraine as a secondary issue.
- He believes Ukraine is within Russia's sphere of influence and blames them for provoking the war.
Trump's Broader Europe Policy
- Trump's Ukraine policy is part of a larger strategy to reshape the transatlantic relationship and balance of effort within NATO.
- This includes addressing the perceived raw deal Americans get from NATO.
The Minerals Deal and Trump's Deal-Making
- Trump's interest in a minerals deal seems to stem from his past rhetoric about acquiring resources from conflict zones (Iraq, Syria).
- This is consistent with his deal-making persona.