Sarah Longwell, a Republican strategist and co-host of the Focus Group podcast, joins for an insightful discussion about the recent Republican debate. She analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's dominance versus Ron DeSantis' hesitant approach to key issues. The conversation highlights the missteps by candidates like Chris Christie and the strategic implications for 2024. Longwell offers unique perspectives from focus groups, revealing what truly resonates with Trump supporters and how these dynamics could shape voter sentiment moving forward.
Vivek Ramaswamy dominated the Republican debate by taking up a significant amount of time and launching attacks at multiple candidates.
The strength of the pro-Trump sentiment within the Republican Party was evident as the crowd was unreceptive to anti-Trump sentiments from Chris Christie and Nikki Haley.
Candidates looking to appeal to the anti-Trump lane face obstacles and should focus on electability without alienating pro-Trump voters to capture a significant portion of the anti-Trump faction.
Deep dives
No Standout Performances in Republican Primary Debate
The recent Republican primary debate lacked standout performances and failed to make a significant impact among the base voters. DeSantis struggled to make an impression, while Vivek dominated the stage and gained attention by taking up a considerable amount of time. Although some in the audience cheered for Vivek, his confrontational style and extreme positions could attract support from the faction of the base seeking a fierce Trump defender. The debate crowd was not receptive to anti-Trump sentiments from Christie and Hutchinson, indicating the strength of the pro-Trump sentiment in the Republican Party. Overall, no candidate made a compelling case against Trump, pointing to the significant challenge faced by those attempting to carve out an anti-Trump lane.
The Size of the Anti-Trump Lane Among Republicans
Among Republican voters, the anti-Trump lane is relatively small. Approximately 30% of Republicans are always Trumpers, while another 30% may have some reservations but still support Trump. The remaining 30% consists of voters who are ready to move on from Trump, and there is a smaller proportion of staunch never-Trumpers, approximately 10%. Candidates like Christie and Hutchinson can expect limited support from the never-Trump faction, while the move-on-from-Trump group is more likely to align with candidates such as DeSantis or Vivek, who express electability concerns while maintaining pro-Trump positions.
Navigating the Anti-Trump Lane
Given the challenging dynamics of the Republican base, candidates looking to appeal to the anti-Trump lane face obstacles. Openly opposing Trump during a debate is likely to draw criticism and resistance from the crowd. To effectively navigate this lane, candidates should focus on electability without alienating pro-Trump voters. Making a case against Trump's policies or highlighting concerns about his ability to win in a general election could resonate with the move-on-from-Trump faction. However, capturing a significant portion of the anti-Trump lane will require a careful balance of appealing to voters beyond just the staunch never-Trumpers.
The Chaos and Attacks
Vivek Ramaswamy stood out by making the entire debate about himself, launching attacks at everyone, including Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott. Christie failed to go after Trump and didn't make a significant impact. Haley focused on foreign policy, but struggled to connect with voters on electability. Scott disappeared on stage and missed his moment to stand out.
Electability and Extreme Views
The concept of electability was not emphasized in the debate, and voters' beliefs on Joe Biden's electability vary. Some Trump supporters see Biden as incompetent, while others believe Trump won the last election. Vivek Ramaswamy made extreme statements like climate change being a hoax, appealing to a portion of the Republican base that appreciates outspokenness. However, reactions to his views were mixed, with some booing and others showing support.
Ramaswamy dominated, DeSantis dodged, Christie attacked the wrong guy—and Trump and Tucker Carlson talked about Jeffrey Epstein. Tommy and Dan recap the lowest lows of the first Republican debate, and Republican strategist Sarah Longwell joins to explain whether any of this matters to real-life voters.
For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast.
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