The Briefing Europe awaits ‘Liberation Day’
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Apr 2, 2025 Karsten Brzezki, Global Head of Macro at ING Research, and Leila Milana-Allen, Middle East correspondent for Monocle, share their insights on urgent global issues. They discuss Trump's looming tariffs and how Europe's economic landscape is bracing for impact, with potential trade conflicts on the horizon. Meanwhile, Leila details Israel's escalating military operations in Gaza, painting a grim picture of the humanitarian crisis and shifting warfare norms. The conversation highlights crucial geopolitical dynamics that are shaping our world today.
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Historic Tariffs
- Trump's proposed tariffs could reorder the global economy, potentially reaching levels last seen in the 1930s.
- This is reminiscent of the tariff wave that preceded World War II, raising concerns about global trade and economic stability.
Economic Impact
- The impact of the tariffs is uncertain, depending on consumer demand and product alternatives.
- Generic estimates suggest significant inflation in the US and potential recession in Europe.
Europe's Dilemma
- Europe faces a dilemma: retaliatory tariffs hurt their economies but demonstrate strength against the US.
- The "nuclear option" of targeting US services could be more effective due to US dependence.