RiskReversal Pod Will The Capital Markets Close on OpenAI? | Steve Milunovich x Okay, Computer.
Jan 28, 2026
Steve Milunovich, retired sell‑side analyst and seasoned tech investor, offers macro and industry perspective on AI, semiconductors, and cloud infrastructure. He compares today’s AI boom to the dot‑com era. Conversations cover early winners like NVIDIA, massive CapEx and data‑center builds, reliance on big players, supply constraints, geopolitical risks, and how AI might spread beyond pure tech into banks and industrials.
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AI Mirrors The Dot-Com Pattern
- AI today echoes the dot-com era with new foundational tech, early 'picks-and-shovels' winners, and application layers lagging behind the infrastructure build-out.
- History suggests there may still be upside but also structural parallels like heavy CapEx and vendor-financing risks that warrant caution.
Circular Financing And CapEx Pressure
- Circular vendor financing and heavy CapEx resemble late-90s excesses, but today's strong players like NVIDIA and Google lessen immediate systemic risk.
- Still, rising debt and massive data-center spending could compress returns on capital over time.
Watch CapEx Guidance Closely
- Watch short-term cloud growth but get cautious after six to twelve months as CapEx demands may pressure free cash flow and returns.
- Monitor guidance from hyperscalers on CapEx and balance-sheet strength before assuming sustained upside.