Planet Money How much does this cow weigh? (Classic)
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Apr 10, 2024 Learn about Francis Galton's fascinating experiment that showed the remarkable accuracy of crowd guessing. Discover how the average estimates of people at a fair were shockingly close to the actual weight of an ox. The hosts replicate this by having listeners guess Penelope the cow's weight, highlighting the incredible wisdom of crowds. Explore how collective judgment plays a role in markets and investment behavior, and enjoy lighthearted debates on cow weights, making for an entertaining take on statistical phenomena.
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Ox Weight Guessing
- Francis Galton tested the wisdom of crowds at a country fair.
- The average guess of an ox's weight was only one pound off.
Wisdom of Crowds
- The "wisdom of crowds" is everywhere, from stock markets to commodity pricing.
- It's based on the idea that collective guesses can be surprisingly accurate.
Planet Money's Cow Experiment
- Planet Money repeated Galton's experiment with a cow named Penelope at a fair.
- They wanted to test if a larger, online crowd could accurately guess Penelope’s weight.