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Planet Money
How much does this cow weigh? (Classic)
Apr 10, 2024
Learn about Francis Galton's fascinating experiment that showed the remarkable accuracy of crowd guessing. Discover how the average estimates of people at a fair were shockingly close to the actual weight of an ox. The hosts replicate this by having listeners guess Penelope the cow's weight, highlighting the incredible wisdom of crowds. Explore how collective judgment plays a role in markets and investment behavior, and enjoy lighthearted debates on cow weights, making for an entertaining take on statistical phenomena.
17:37
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Quick takeaways
- Collective judgments can be surprisingly accurate, challenging the perception that experts always make better decisions.
- Diverse input from a crowd outperforms individual experts, showcasing the power of collaborative perspectives.
Deep dives
The Wisdom of Crowds and Collective Intelligence
Despite individual variations, a group's collective judgment can be surprisingly accurate. The podcast explores the story of Francis Galton, who found that averaging the guesses of a crowd at a fair almost perfectly estimated the weight of an ox. This concept extends to various areas like the stock market, where random collective decisions often yield insightful results. The phenomenon challenges the perception that experts always make better judgments, highlighting the power of collaborative and diverse perspectives.
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