Pakistan's distributed solar boom with Jenny Chase
Sep 30, 2024
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Jenny Chase, a renowned global solar analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, shares her deep insights into Pakistan's solar surge. She highlights the nation's rise as the third-largest importer of Chinese solar panels while revealing an unsettling disconnect with the national utility. The conversation touches on the impacts of decentralized energy on traditional utilities, concerns over potential utility death spirals, and the challenges faced by homeowners amid regulatory hurdles. Jenny emphasizes the need for innovation in energy storage and the transformative potential of solar energy in the country.
Jenny Chase highlights Pakistan's rapid increase in solar module imports, raising concerns about actual deployment and regulatory oversight.
The podcast discusses the potential 'utility death spiral' in Pakistan's power sector due to rising solar adoption among affluent customers.
Jenny speculates that advancements in battery technology will significantly enhance solar energy's contribution to global consumption by 2050.
Deep dives
Jenny Chase's Career and Insights
Jenny Chase discusses her extensive career in the solar power industry, which spans nearly 20 years. She focuses on providing critical data about solar installations, their costs, and market dynamics that inform investment decisions. Jenny emphasizes that while solar power has significant potential, there are instances when investing in this sector can be unwise, particularly concerning manufacturing. Her shift away from management has allowed her to explore specific markets, including an intriguing project on solar energy in Pakistan.
Defining Distributed Energy Resources (DER)
Jenny expresses her skepticism towards the term 'distributed energy' (DER) due to its varying definitions across different regions. She explains how definitions can range from small-scale systems in the U.S. to larger installations in other countries. This disparity indicates a need for clarity in discussions about energy distribution models. Jenny ultimately prefers to use terms like commercial and industrial solar to better describe these systems.
The Surprising Surge of Solar in Pakistan
The podcast highlights the rapid increase in solar module imports in Pakistan, which jumped from two gigawatts to an estimated nine gigawatts within a short period. This uptick raises questions about the actual deployment of these modules, given the discrepancies in reported installations. Jenny explains how satellite data analysis has shown significant numbers of solar installations in industrial regions of Pakistan, indicating an unregulated boom in rooftop solar. The rise in energy prices and the desperate need for reliable electricity are key drivers of this solar surge in the country.
The Challenges of Utility Operations in Pakistan
Pakistan's power sector faces a potential 'utility death spiral,' as rising solar adoption among affluent customers leaves the grid with a shrinking revenue base. As wealthier households and businesses move to solar, utilities must cover the fixed costs of their operations, which disproportionately burden lower-income users. The discussion reveals that high electricity prices and a lack of effective regulatory measures have exacerbated this situation. Consequently, there are concerns about the long-term viability of the grid and the implications for investment in renewable energy infrastructure.
Future of Solar Energy and Storage Technologies
Jenny speculates that the solar story is just beginning, predicting a significant rise in solar's contribution to global energy consumption, potentially reaching 50% by 2050. She believes advances in battery technology will play a crucial role in this transition, making energy storage more accessible and affordable. This could lead to a transformation in how energy systems operate, prioritizing solar's integration. The discussion suggests that while incremental improvements in solar technology will continue, groundbreaking changes will likely come from enhanced storage solutions and innovative energy management strategies.
A truly wild story is unfolding in Pakistan. Over the past few years the country has become the globe’s third largest importer of Chinese solar panels, and yet none of the resulting projects are operated by, or even visible to, the national utility.
Simultaneously, demand from the grid has dropped 9.1% over the past 12 months, which has many scared of a potential utility death spiral.
Here’s a recent story in the Financial Times on what’s been going on that’s good background.
To unpack this, we sat down with Jenny Chase of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. She has been chasing down this story since 2021, when she was the first to report on it.
Jenny is also the OG solar analyst and knows more about this space than pretty much anyone. We highly suggesting scrolling through her annual “Opinions About Solar” megathread on twitter.
On an unrelated note, DERVOS tickets are selling fast. There’s less than 15 left at the discounted price, so snag yours quickly. Final speakers, sessions, demo-day participants, and more to come out shortly.
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