The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost Jeremy Grantham: How to Predict a Stock Market Bubble — and Why Nvidia May Lead the Mag 7 Crash
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Jul 10, 2025 
Jeremy Grantham, founder and chairman of GMO, shares his sharp insights on stock market bubbles, having successfully predicted them over the past five decades. He draws a striking comparison between Nvidia's soaring market cap and the opportunists of the gold rush. Grantham warns of the current risks with the 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks, emphasizing the amateur investor's edge in navigating turbulent markets. He offers invaluable strategies for non-professionals, urging caution while noting the unique advantages they possess.
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Dot-Com Bubble Timing Pain
- Jeremy Grantham described the dot-com bubble call as painful with years of underperformance.
- GMO became bearish at a historic PE of 21, later facing 6.5% annual underperformance amid rising earnings.
Long Bear Markets Slow Recovery
- Bear markets are temporary but can last years or decades to recover fully.
- Half the time since 1925 markets spent recovering from crashes, not progressing.
Serious Tech Guarantees Bubbles
- Serious new technologies like AI almost guarantee bubbles due to obvious benefits.
- Overinvestment in redundant ventures is typical, causing many to lose money despite long-term winners.