Monday Match Analysis Is Alcaraz's Serve Just As Good As Sinner's Now? (DATA DIVE) | Monday Match Analysis
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Sep 26, 2025 In this engaging discussion, Tom Corrie, lead analyst at TennisViz, delves into the fascinating world of tennis analytics. He reveals how Carlos Alcaraz's serve has improved to rival Jannik Sinner's, fueled by data showing significant effectiveness gains. The duo explores Sinner's conversion drops against Alcaraz, highlighting his lack of variation. They also break down Ben Shelton's notable improvements, Holger Rune's strengths, and why Alexander Bublik has surged into the top 20—thanks to a huge serve quality spike and better shot selection.
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What Serve Quality Actually Measures
- Serve quality isolates the serve by measuring speed, spin, and accuracy rather than point outcomes.
- Tennis Viz's metric also accounts for the serve's impact on the opponent independent of point win percentage.
Alcaraz's Serve Has Become More Effective
- Carlos Alcaraz's recent serve quality rose slightly to about 8.0 while his serve effectiveness jumped substantially.
- His serve effectiveness increased from ~58% to ~68.8% by creating more unreturned serves and attack opportunities.
Sinner Leads Broadly But Drops Versus Alcaraz
- Yannick Sinner still leads the tour on 52-week serve quality and effectiveness overall.
- However, Alcaraz has closed the gap in recent form and Sinner's numbers dip notably in their head-to-head matches.