WSJ What’s News Alternative Indicators: What Big-Rig Truck Sales Reveal About the U.S. Economy
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Nov 17, 2025 
Join Bob Tita, a Wall Street Journal reporter specializing in manufacturing, and Avery Vise, vice president at FTR Transportation Intelligence, as they dissect the troubling trend in heavy truck sales. They explore how these sales signal economic activity, the impact of tariffs and regulations on the trucking industry, and the difference between truck orders and sales. While Tita highlights rising inventories due to weak manufacturing, Vise offers a cautiously optimistic outlook of modest growth without a recession until 2026.
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Truck Sales Mirror Economic Activity
- Heavy truck sales correlate strongly with freight activity and broader economic health dating back to the 1960s.
- Recent declines in truck sales signal weakness in manufacturing and overall demand.
Manufacturers Report Sharp Truck Sales Drop
- Heavy-truck unit sales have plunged year-over-year, with major manufacturers reporting steep declines in recent quarters.
- That drop aligns with lower demand for shipping and weaker manufacturing output.
Orders, Inventories Signal Weaker Demand
- Truck orders predict future sales because fleets buy when freight demand and rates improve.
- High dealer inventories and weak orders now indicate softer near-term replacement and fleet expansion.