At last, key U.S. economic data return

Nov 17, 2025

The reopening of the U.S. government paves the way for crucial economic data release, shedding light on market trends. Nicholas Fawcett discusses how labor data could signal a softening job market, impacting Fed rate expectations. He also delves into alternative indicators that suggest a cooling labor market. Expect payroll data soon, while some CPI releases may still be on hold. BlackRock maintains a pro-risk stance, favoring U.S. equities, especially amid significant earnings from Nvidia. Fawcett shares insights on European equities and sector preferences.

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INSIGHT

Backlogged Data Will Reframe The Outlook

The end of the US government shutdown will return key backlogged economic data that markets have lacked.
Nicholas Fawcett expects this data to confirm a cooling but not collapsing US labor market, supporting rate-cut hopes.

INSIGHT

Alternative Data Echo Fed's Labor Story

Alternative data during the shutdown signaled a cooling US labor market consistent with the Fed's view.
Fawcett expects the backlog payrolls to show a sharp drop from earlier deferred government layoffs but believes the Fed has likely priced that in.

ADVICE

Keep A Pro-Risk Tilt Toward US Equities

Maintain a pro-risk stance with an overweight to US equities and the AI theme given the policy backdrop.
Watch Nvidia earnings as a key signpost for the AI tilt and US earnings momentum.

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The reopening of the U.S. government will allow the release of backlogged economic data, especially jobs data, helping us take stock of our pro-risk view. Nicholas Fawcett, Chief Investment Strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, breaks down the implications.

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