War on the Rocks
Will Russia's War on Ukraine Keep Resisting Trump's Diplomacy?
May 5, 2025
Michael Kofman, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment specializing in Russian military affairs, and Dara Massicot, an expert in Russian military capabilities, delve into the complexities of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They analyze how Trump's peace efforts clash with ongoing military realities. The discussion covers the evolving U.S.-Ukraine diplomatic landscape, NATO aspirations, and the impact of military strategies on civilians. Notably, they explore Ukraine's tactical shifts and potential future escalations, highlighting the intricate web of diplomacy and conflict.
40:42
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Quick takeaways
- The podcast illustrates how the evolving military dynamics, including Russia's shift in tactical approach and Ukraine's innovative defense strategies, heavily influences diplomatic negotiation prospects.
- It highlights the domestic pressures faced by both nations, emphasizing Ukraine’s increasing fatigue and Russia's efforts to reintegrate returning soldiers for political stability.
Deep dives
Chronology of Peace Efforts
The podcast outlines the complex chronology of the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, focusing on key diplomatic efforts and milestones. After a contentious meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. officials, Zelensky visits London, where the British and French take on intermediary roles to stabilize the situation. This leads to negotiations on a minerals deal involving several technical agreements, which are handled separately from broader ceasefire discussions. As the negotiations unfold, shifts in Russian military tactics, such as targeting civilian infrastructure instead of energy resources, complicate the prospects for peace.
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