War on the Rocks Will Russia's War on Ukraine Keep Resisting Trump's Diplomacy?
20 snips
May 5, 2025 
Michael Kofman, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment specializing in Russian military affairs, and Dara Massicot, an expert in Russian military capabilities, delve into the complexities of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They analyze how Trump's peace efforts clash with ongoing military realities. The discussion covers the evolving U.S.-Ukraine diplomatic landscape, NATO aspirations, and the impact of military strategies on civilians. Notably, they explore Ukraine's tactical shifts and potential future escalations, highlighting the intricate web of diplomacy and conflict.
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Fragmented Peace Efforts Reduced Impact
- The Trump administration's peace efforts faced complexity due to parallel, loosely coordinated tracks with Russia and Ukraine.
- This fragmented approach hindered coherent diplomacy and sustained ceasefire progress.
Use Trusted Translators in Talks
- Ensure negotiators have their own translators to avoid miscommunication risks in talks.
- Solo diplomatic missions should institutionalize readouts for internal coherence and strategy alignment.
Ceasefire Conditions Show Divergent Goals
- Russia never intended to accept a ceasefire without preconditions, unlike Ukraine which wanted ceasefire first.
- The U.S. threat to walk away incentivized Russian stalling for a better deal later, undermining immediate peace.