Bloomberg Businessweek Instant Reaction: Nvidia Gives Solid Forecast, Despite China Concerns
May 28, 2025
Mandeep Singh, Senior Tech Industry Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, dives into Nvidia's impressive revenue forecast despite challenges in China. He discusses how Nvidia plans to ramp up production of its new Blackwell chip while navigating export restrictions. The conversation also highlights the company’s leadership in AI accelerators and the evolving chip technology landscape. Singh touches on competitive threats and the implications of geopolitical factors, providing insights into Nvidia's positioning in the tech sector and opportunities in Sovereign AI markets.
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Nvidia Offsets China Revenue Loss
- Nvidia lost $8 billion in China revenue but offset losses with other customers and increased AI demand.
- Token generation climbs 10x, driving significant compute needs due to AI services like ChatGPT.
Sustained Growth Despite Cyclicality
- Semiconductor growth is cyclical and 60-70% growth rates on $200 billion revenue are unsustainable.
- Nvidia still grows faster than hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta, showing long growth runway.
China Restrictions Threaten Growth
- China accounted for ~20% of Nvidia revenue, and export restrictions create a significant risk.
- Losing China market means missing many secondary large language model customers in the long term.