Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient David Rosenberg: "The Business Cycle Is Dead"—The Story Investors Today Believe
10 snips
Dec 16, 2025 
In this conversation with economist David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, complacency in today’s markets takes center stage. He argues that the belief in a dead business cycle is dangerously misguided. Topics include the skewed impact of AI on GDP growth, the K-shaped economy, and the alarming cracks in the labor market. Rosenberg also points out why interest rate cuts aren’t stimulating real economic activity and warns that stocks are being priced as if risks have disappeared.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Complacency Misreads Market Reality
- Many investors believe the business and market cycles are dead and that recessions no longer occur.
- David Rosenberg warns this complacency replaces risk management and contradicts historical market forces.
Growth Is Top-Heavy And AI-Centered
- U.S. growth is highly uneven and concentrated in AI-driven CapEx and the top 10% of consumers.
- Rosenberg says headline GDP masks flat equal-weighted growth outside AI and top-tier equity gains.
Equity Wealth Masks Consumer Weakness
- Consumer spending is buoyed by the equity wealth effect despite falling real disposable income.
- Rosenberg notes spending rose while real after-tax income fell, driven by top-end stock gains.