Stratechery The Death and Birth of Technological Revolutions
Oct 12, 2021
Dive into the cyclical nature of technological revolutions as historical patterns unfold. Uncover how emerging technologies clash with established systems, shaping societal equity during volatile transitional phases. Explore the unsustainable economic dynamics and the vital role of government in fostering growth amid crises. Examine the dark implications of modern governance on technology, spotlighting China and U.S. parallels. Finally, see how the pandemic catalyzed industrial consolidation while sparking decentralization efforts in cryptocurrencies.
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Technological Revolution Cycle
- Carlota Perez's book, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, argues that technological revolutions follow a cyclical pattern.
- This pattern includes an installation period, a frenzy, a crash, and a golden age of deployment.
Delayed Golden Age
- While Perez initially thought the dot-com bubble was the turning point for the IT revolution, she now believes we are still waiting for the golden age.
- She suggests another crash may be coming before the true golden age begins.
1930s Analogy
- Perez compares the current technological landscape to the 1930s, citing similarities like xenophobia and unused technological potential.
- She argues that government intervention, like the post-WWII policies that spurred suburbanization, is key to unlocking this potential.
