Barron's Live The Game Is Bonds. How DoubleLine Plays It
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Nov 10, 2025 
Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at DoubleLine, shares insights on navigating the current bond market amid high inflation and slower growth. He discusses the implications of the government shutdown on economic visibility and the mixed signals from the labor market affecting Treasury yields. Sherman emphasizes the importance of alternative data and outlines his portfolio strategies, recommending mid-quality credit and short-duration TIPS while cautioning against high-risk junk. He also explores future market reactions to Fed policies.
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Data Fog Didn’t Upend The Economy
- Missing six weeks of official data didn't change the underlying economic trends materially according to Jeffrey Sherman.
- Alternative private indicators like ISM and payroll providers showed continuity through the shutdown period.
Tariffs Could Push Inflation Up
- Fed moves will be data-dependent and December cuts are not guaranteed.
- Tariff-driven goods inflation and rising duties at the border could push inflation into the mid-to-high threes next year.
Yield Curve Caught Between Inflation And Labor
- The yield curve reflects conflicting forces: rising goods inflation versus waning labor demand.
- That push-pull explains recent choppy Treasury trading and uncertainty about longer-term yields.