Afford Anything First Friday: When the Gov’t is Closed, Where Do We Find the Numbers?
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Nov 7, 2025 October saw a dramatic spike in job cuts, marking it the worst month in two decades, juxtaposed with a small rise in private payrolls. The discussion dives into the rise of youth unemployment and how AI is reshaping entry-level job markets. With mortgage rates affecting housing mobility, consumer sentiment is on the decline. Amid all this, good news emerges with significant decreases in prescription drug prices, highlighting recent agreements from major pharma companies. The looming government shutdown is also explored, affecting federal workers and mortgage processes.
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Conflicting Private Jobs Data
- Multiple private trackers show conflicting October jobs data, from +42k (ADP) to -9k (Reveglio) and record cuts (Challenger).
- Paula Pant highlights that ADP is largest but cross-source comparison reveals a mixed labor picture.
Hidden Weaknesses Despite Stable Unemployment
- Youth unemployment and long-term unemployment are rising despite a steady headline unemployment rate.
- Powell calls this a "low-firing, low-hiring" environment that keeps existing workers employed but reduces new entry-level opportunities.
Expect Borrowing To Get Cheaper, Savings Lower
- Lower Fed funds rates generally reduce borrowing costs and also lower yields on savings.
- Paula Pant advises borrowers will benefit while savers should expect falling yields.