Interpreting the 2025 Bihar Verdict

Bihar has once again delivered a political drama worthy of its reputation record turnout, sharp debates over the voter rolls, a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and a fresh round of questions about whether the opposition has what it takes to displace Modi and the BJP. The NDA anchored by Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United), together with the BJP and other allies, secured a landslide victory by winning 202 out of 243 seats in the state assembly.

The opposition, for its part, saw little change in its vote share from 2020, but could only muster 35 seats. To work through the elections and their larger meaning for India’s political economy, Milan is joined on the show today by the Hindustan Times data and political economy editor Roshan Kishore. Over the past several months, Roshan and his team have consistently put out the most thoughtful data and analysis on the trends in Bihar. Milan and Roshan discuss the resilience of the JD(U)–BJP alliance, the polarization in the electorate, and the dissonance within the opposition alliance’s campaign. Plus, the two discuss the Election Commission of India (ECI)’s controversial review of electoral rolls, the impact of upstart Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj Party, and what the elections portend for India’s political economy beyond November. Episode notes:

1. Roshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha, “Not conspiracy, political economy explains Bihar results,” Hindustan Times, November 18, 2025.

2. Nishant Ranjan and Roshan Kishore, “The resurrection of ‘coalition of extremes’ in Bihar,” Hindustan Times, November 15, 2025.
3. Abhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore, “How did Bihar go from a 2020 cliff-hanger to a 2025 landslide?” Hindustan Times, November 15, 2025.
4. Roshan Kishore, Abhishek Jha, and Nishant Ranjan, “Three key takeaways from Bihar results,” Hindustan Times, November 15, 2025.
5. Roshan Kishore, “Bihar election results: Twelve Ds that explain the Bihar results,” Hindustan Times, November 14, 2025.
6.  “A Sixth of Humanity and the Dreams of a Nation (with Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian),” Grand Tamasha, October 22, 2025. 
7. Neelanjan Sircar, “The Welfarist Prime Minister: Explaining the National-State Election Gap,” Economic and Political Weekly 56, no. 10 (March 2021).