Kerre Woodham: US strikes on Iran - where do we go from here?

The world is on fire, World War III imminent, what can New Zealand do? Well, very little.

Those were the headlines over the weekend. After telling the world he'd decide within two weeks whether or not to unleash the power of the United States on Iran in support of Israel, Donald Trump and his administration sent B2 stealth bombers into Iran on Friday to penetrate the underground nuclear facilities deep in the mountains of Iran.

Israel, of course, has been attacking Iran's nuclear and military structures with very targeted attacks for the past 10 days or so, deploying warplanes and drones that apparently were previously smuggled into the country to attack key facilities and target top generals and scientists involved in the nuclear programme.

Israel claimed its attacks were necessary before Iran got any closer to building an atomic weapon. No weapons there at the moment, but apparently the stockpiles of enriched uranium are at a high and unprecedented for a state or a country without nuclear weapons.

So there are no bombs as you and I might imagine them, but there is enriched uranium at levels hitherto unseen in a country without nuclear weapons. Initially, the US had a hands-off approach to Israel's attacks - nothing to do with us, nothing to see here.

But all that changed when the B2 bombers went in. It was quite the operation as operations go, with the decoy planes being sent to Guam - and they were able to get in to Iran without a shot being fired against them. And you'd hope that one wouldn't be brought down at $2 billion a pop, it's expensive military hardware.

The US said it was a pre-emptive strike they were seeking to terminate a threat, that being atomic weapons, not the Iranian regime. After Israel's retaliation for the festival attacks that killed more than 1000 Israeli civilians, Iran's kind of Nigel-no-mates in the middle of the Middle East.

Hamas and Hezbollah have been, in effect, nullified. Syria's Bashar al-Assad has had to flee Syria. Russia signed a treaty with Iran but so far it seems to have been very one sided with Iran building kamikaze drones for Russia and working with Russia to build military hardware.

And all of a sudden they're in trouble and Russia - goes well this is dreadful, and that's pretty much it. All they've come up with are words and they are busy in Ukraine. There would be very little they could do militarily without weakening their stand in Ukraine, so Russia has its hands tied. 

So where to from here? The Iranians will close the Straits of Hormuz, which will affect supplies of gas and oil getting to the West, along with other supplies. And there are concerns that you'll see again the kind of terrorist attacks and suicide bombings and hostage taking that we saw some years back.

But the Ayatollahs won't be able to rely on an army of dissatisfied young people. They have no particular love for it and a number of them have told journalists that when the Ayatollahs are asking for unity and taking a stand against the aggressors: you have got to be kidding, the aggressor is you.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, told the Iranian people in a video message that, along with Israel thwarting Iran's nuclear programme, we are clearing the path for you to achieve your freedom and some Iranians have gathered behind that call.

Others are like, yeah we don't like our leaders, but it's Israel and America. We would love to see a new style of governance within our own country, but it's as well in America who are who are affecting that change. So it's all terribly up in the air.

To be honest though, when I saw the headlines saying: ‘the world's on fire, have we reached World War III’,  I felt more existential dread over the 9/11 attacks.

That particular morning, when I woke up to the news that the planes had flown and to the Twin Towers, I really did feel like World War III was on the horizon. That was an attack on civilians, within the US, a strike on home soil.

In this particular case - where Iran hasn't got Hamas and Hezbollah at full strength, if at any strength at all, when it's only mates are Russia and China, who have basically done basically done nothing, when it's been weakened with the targeted attacks on the military leaders and on the nuclear scientists, they are not in a position of power.

And hopefully, they will realise that and there will be a period of time where the strongest wins and the weak lick their wounds and bide their time. 

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