Tariffs, Technology, and Transition with Tiffany Wilding

Oct 14, 2025

Guest

Brandon Kunz

Guest

Tiffany Wilding

Tiffany Wilding, a macro economist at PIMCO known for her Cyclical Outlook, joins fellow team member Brandon Kunz to delve into the rising influence of tariffs, technology, and economic transitions. They dissect the implications of escalating tariffs on GDP and employment, while also exploring the booming tech landscape and its potential to reshape job markets through AI. The duo emphasizes the advantage of high-quality bonds in today's market, marking a tipping point for advisors as they evaluate portfolio strategies amidst these evolving dynamics.

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INSIGHT

Three Forces Reshaping The Economy

The U.S. economy faces three clashing themes: tariffs, rapid technology diffusion (AI), and geopolitical-driven transition of trade and capital flows.
These forces will widen gaps between winners and losers and increase volatility in investment and trade relationships.

ADVICE

Estimate Tariff Effects With Offsets

Use the rule of thumb: a 1% rise in tariffs implies ~10bps GDP fall and ~10bps inflation rise, but fiscal offsets can mute effects.
Monitor recycling of tariff revenues and tax-cut offsets to estimate true growth and inflation impacts.

INSIGHT

Preemptive Buying Masks Weakness

Firms and households pulled activity forward to avoid expected tariff-driven price rises, boosting trade and industrial production temporarily.
That

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Economist Tiffany Wilding rejoins the podcast to discuss PIMCO’s latest Cyclical Outlook, alongside host Greg Hall and Account Manager Brandon Kunz. Tune in to learn more about how clashing forces are widening the gap between winners and losers and discover the exciting opportunities the team envisions for the future.

Show notes: 1. Overview of PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook. 2. Rules of Thumb and ‘Pay Backs.’ 3. A technological investment boom – effects on employment trends, CAPEX, and more.
4. PIMCO vs. The Street – how do our views stack up?
5. The Agg is finally outyielding cash – is this a tipping point for advisors? Tariffs, Technology, and Transition: Our Cyclical Outlook

The Fragmentation Era: Our Secular Outlook

An Exploration of Technology Diffusion, Comin & Hobijn, 2010, American Economic Review

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