Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast

Larry Johnson: Russian vs NATO Military Capabilities - A Warning Before a Direct War

Nov 1, 2025
Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst and counterterrorism expert, shares insights from his recent meetings with Russian military leaders. He discusses the considerable advantages Russia holds in artillery and drone production compared to NATO. Johnson explores the strategic implications of Russia's hypersonic missiles and emphasizes the importance of recognizing adversarial strengths to avert miscalculations. He warns that underestimating Russia could lead to dangerous policy assumptions, particularly concerning a potential direct conflict with NATO.
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INSIGHT

Russian Industrial And Military Production Edge

  • Larry Johnson argues Russia outproduces NATO in artillery shells and barrels, and leads in hypersonic missiles and drone production.
  • He claims Russia produces ~600 new tanks yearly while the US refurbishes older models, showing material advantage.
ANECDOTE

Surprise Advance Along A Gas Pipeline

  • Johnson recounts General Opti Alaudinov leading a successful 13 km surprise advance along a gas pipeline in Suja.
  • The operation required crouched marching under heavy load and destroyed Ukrainian forces in that engagement.
INSIGHT

Cost And Capability Asymmetry In Weapons

  • Johnson highlights Russian hypersonic missiles and nuclear-powered cruise systems the West lacks, claiming strategic reach and survivability advantages.
  • He contrasts cheap Russian strike drones with multimillion-dollar US MQ-9s to show cost-effective mass attrition.
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