The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series

Russia: Trump Pulls the Trigger

7 snips
Oct 31, 2025
Tensions rise as President Trump imposes full sanctions on Russia's largest oil firms, expressing frustration over their deceptive diplomacy. Peter Zeihan breaks down the implications for U.S. consumers and the limited direct impact these sanctions have within Russia. He explores the risks for American firms involved in international projects and argues that current measures are too minor to influence Russian strategy. The discussion turns to potential secondary sanctions and challenges in the Trump administration's ability to enforce stringent measures.
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INSIGHT

US Hits Russia's Oil Giants

  • Trump sanctioned Russia's two biggest oil firms as a first hard step after months of Russian bad faith in talks.
  • The sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, limiting US nationals from doing business with them and signaling a new US posture.
INSIGHT

Different Impacts On Lukoil Vs Rosneft

  • Lukoil has a limited but tangible US footprint via ~150 gas stations and supply links; Rosneft mostly operates inside Russia.
  • Direct US market disruption will be modest, but corporate exposures in regional projects could cost American firms billions.
ANECDOTE

Exxon And Big Projects At Risk

  • Zeihan cites specific projects like Karachaganak and Tengiz involving American firms such as ExxonMobil.
  • He notes Lukoil invested over $20 billion in Tengiz over 30 years, risking large losses if partnerships are cut.
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