thinkenergy shorts: keeping the lights on through extreme weather

Fire bans. Blackouts. Heat waves. Extreme weather is hitting harder and more often. Plus, Canada’s electricity demand is soaring. In thinkenergy episode 161, host Trevor Freeman breaks down how utilities plan for grid resilience, from upgrading local infrastructure to planning a national east-west grid. He also explores how customer demand response can help prevent outages. Learn how climate and consumption are reshaping our energy systems and what’s being done to keep the lights on through extreme weather.

Related links

• Electrifying Canada’s remote communities with QUEST Canada (thinkenergy episode 143): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/electrifying-canadas-remote-communities-with-quest-canada/

• Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-8b612114

• Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en  

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Transcript:

Trevor Freeman  00:07

Welcome to a thinkenergy short, hosted by me, Trevor Freeman. This is a bite sized episode designed to be a quick summary of a specific topic or idea related to the world of energy. This is meant to round out our collective understanding of the energy sector, and will complement our normal guest interview episodes. Thanks for joining and happy listening. Hi everyone, and welcome back to thinkenergy. I hope you all had a great summer at equal parts restful and exciting. Certainly, we had a great summer here. It was good to take a bit of a step back and think about all the exciting topics that we have to talk to you about coming up over the course of the next season of the think energy podcast. And it's nice to be back here behind the microphone. I'm recording this just at the tail end of summer, the kind of end of August, and looking forward to getting into lots of good content this year. Today, we're going to start off our season with a look at the impact of extreme weather on our grid, as our grid is already under pressure from growing electricity demand. So it's a bit of a look at what utilities are doing in the face of that pressure. So this will be a think energy short, and we'll bring you our guest episode the next time around. So let's dive right in then. What does extreme weather mean for Canada's electricity infrastructure, and should we be worried about its ability to handle that extreme weather? This is kind of top of mind right now. We're at the tail end of summer. It's been a pretty hot and dry summer, at least where I am. Incidentally, I'm about to head into Algonquin Park for a backcountry camping trip, and there's a fire bed on and that's not unheard of in Algonquin Park and in many parts of the country, but this late in the season, it's pretty rare. I think this might actually be the first time that we've had a fire ban so late in the season that I can remember that I've been camping on and I go pretty frequently. So that'll be a little bit unique. And so yeah, a hot, dry summer is certainly one of those things we think of when we think about the changing weather patterns. But this is also top of mind because Rukshar Ali, who's a journalist with CTV, has been exploring, you know, the weak points in Canada's electricity grids, and has been writing about what impact extreme weather might have on those grids. So at a very high level, Canada's power grids as they are built today and in the past, as they have been built. So at a high level, Canada's power grids, as we've been building them for the last 100 years or so, need improvements in order to be able to withstand the frequent extreme weather and growing demand for electricity that we're having. That's not anything new, we talk about that often, how we need to invest in our grid for both reliability as well as expansion and the growing electrification of our society. Climate change is here, extreme weather is here, and those things are adding strain to our grid at the same time that demand is increasing and the grid is is redundant in many aspects. If we lose one component, then we can continue on and serve parts of our customer base from other sections. But extreme weather events are likely to knock out several aspects of the grid at once, and we need to improve in order to be able to withstand that. To give you a sense of the magnitude of the issue, the North American Electric Liability Corporation predicts that within the next decade, half of North America will be at risk for a significant blackout. So let's talk a little bit about why extreme weather as we know as the as the globe warms up from climate change, the frequency and magnitude of weather events increases, so we'll see more extreme weather events, and those extreme weather events will be more extreme, to reuse that word, and we're already seeing this. So last year, for example, severe weather caused 1000 outages in Nova Scotia, between 2013 and 2023 if we look across the entire country, there were around 10 extreme weather events that caused nearly 20 million customers to lose power across Canada. And eight of those 10 extreme weather events occurred in the five year period between 2018 and 2023 so that the frequency of these very significant, very extreme weather events, is definitely growing up. This is all happening at the same time that the country's electricity demand is also increasing and placing pressure on our infrastructure. So we know that usage is going to grow with electrification. We've talked about that a lot here and here in Ontario, the Independent Electricity System Operator, is projecting that consumption will increase by 75% by the year 2050, which is a significant jump up. And so as demand is increasing, we're also seeing that pressure on the grid from that and extreme weather kind of exacerbates that problem too. So extreme heat waves cause people to use their air conditioners more frequently and for longer, and that puts greater demand on the grid as well. So in July of 2023 you might recall this extreme kind of heat period in British Columbia out on the West Coast, and there's the heat dome, and that period saw the province use about 8% more electricity on average, than the previous kind of six year July average. So there is a significant increase from that one single heat event. So what do we do about this? How do we act in the face of increased extreme weather and electrification. Well, first off, we definitely need to update our infrastructure. And utility companies across the country and indeed across North America know this and have already started to do this here in hydro Ottawa's territory, for example, as I've talked about before, hydro Ottawa has a five year investment plan covering the 2026 to 2030 period, which is the largest investment plan in our company's history, and it carries a significant amount of investment in grid reliability, grid modernization, improving and expanding our infrastructure for just these challenges, so for the extreme weather and increased electricity demand across Our grid, if you zoom out a little bit and other parts of the country, the East Coast, for example, Nova Scotia Power recently finished a pole replacement project that saw a significant number of poles being replaced, and they're now moving into a Smart Grid Initiative, which is similar to grid modernization that I've talked about Here on the show in the past, which also addresses utilization of the grid, as well as ability to react during an outage on a bigger scale across the entire country, the federal government has promised to look at an east, west electricity grid, which would help connect more Canadians to more affordable and reliable power. And obviously, new construction would be focused on being able to withstand extreme weather as well as bring on more electricity demand as part of electrification. We've talked here in the past on the show, and the CTV journalist Ali points out that the current grid system makes it a lot easier for provinces to transfer electricity to the United States. It's kind of that north south flow of electricity is a lot easier than an East West flow of electricity. So trading between provinces today is difficult, and that's why there's a push for a national grid, an East West grid, that would make it a lot easier for Canadians to share electricity amongst each other. This would also have the benefit of helping connect more rural and remote communities. So I draw your attention back to a podcast episode I did with quest Canada, where we talked about some of those more remote communities and how a lot of them are not connected to a reliable grid. So there's a lot of work that can be done to really shore up how we connect across the country to the different areas, especially with a major east west grid. And of course, this is supported during this kind of, you know, a little bit tumultuous political climate that we have as we're reevaluating trading relationships with the United States, with other countries, it's important that we really focus on, how do we make sure things flow very well within our own borders? Beyond just the transmission and the grid upgrades that we need to do, we also need to look at diversifying our supply of electricity. So here in Canada, we use a lot of hydro generation, but extreme weather that causes droughts put that at risk. And so low water levels can impact electrical production, and we need to be prepared to have alternative sources as well. We still need to focus on making sure those sources are renewable. So really looking at expanding wind, solar, nuclear energy in some cases, as well as building out other hydro electric generation resources, is really important to have a good diversified mix. And on top of all that, we also need to continue looking at, how can we lower our energy consumption, especially during those peak times, especially when the grid is under stress at certain times of the day or from certain weather events. And we've seen that this can work. So in January 2024 the Alberta electric system operator, or IESO, issued an alert. It was a cold weather alert asking customers to reduce their electricity use during an extremely cold period in that province. And. And shortly after that, there was a 200 megawatt drop in electricity demand, which really helped the province avoid a series of rolling outages and avoid some real challenges on the grid. So it does work when customers are asked to alter their behavior in, you know, hopefully, small and subtle ways to manage grid peaks, and that's a really huge tool that we have. And we've talked before on the show about the role of managing peak times on the grid and being able to shift some of that usage to other times to avoid over stressing the assets that we have. That's going to be a really important strategy as we face increasing demand and extreme weather outages to make sure we're not over stressing the grid. So to sum that all up, extreme weather is going to impact our grid, and utilities do need to be aware of that and plan for how to build a grid that is more resilient and more reliable in the face of that increasing extreme weather. The good news is that utility companies know this and are already moving in that direction, and hydro Ottawa is a good example of that, of really focusing on building out reliability on its grid with some of the investment plans that we have put forward, and that extends all the way up to the federal level as well, where our federal leadership is looking at, how do we plan a EAST, WEST grid, really build out that provincial grid, and while we do that, a continued focus on energy efficiency and reducing electricity demand during peak times, and the various tools that we have to do that. So yes, extreme weather is coming, but there's a plan of how to deal with that. So thanks for tuning in today. It's really great to be back here behind the microphone and chatting with you all. Our next episode is another look at grid modernization, but this time through a customer lens, and really, what does grid modernization mean for customers? So stay tuned and join us in two weeks for our next episode. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the think energy podcast. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review. It really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from you, whether it's feedback comments or an idea for a show or a guest, you can always reach us at thinkenergy@hydroottawa.com, you.