Dani Belo, "Russian Warfare in the 21st Century" (Routledge, 2025)

Sep 17, 2025

Dani Belo, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Webster University, dives into the complexities of Russian warfare in the 21st century. He introduces the Incentive-Opportunity Intervention Model, analyzing Russia's gray zone tactics and military strategies. Belo discusses the Gerasimov Doctrine, emphasizing Russia's perception as a victim of hybrid warfare. He also explores the historical narratives shaping Russian identity, the geopolitical implications of contemporary conflicts, and the importance of nuanced diplomatic approaches for effective conflict resolution.

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ANECDOTE

Author's Academic Journey

Dani Belo describes his academic path from Vancouver to studying why states go to war.
His focus on foreign policy choice led him to specialize on post‑Soviet Russia and intervention dynamics.

INSIGHT

Russia Is Still A Key Military Actor

Russia remains a consequential military actor despite post‑Soviet decline and surprise timings of interventions.
Understanding Russian decisions requires deeper study of their backstory and strategic logic.

INSIGHT

Identity Shapes Russian Strategy

Russian foreign policy mixes geopolitical calculations with affective, identity‑based perceptions of territory.
Both geopolitics and how Russia views compatriots shape intervention choices.

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Dani Belo's Russian Warfare in the 21st Century: An Incentive-Opportunity Intervention Model (Routledge, 2025) provides a comprehensive analysis of Russia's foreign policy in gray zone conflicts, with a particular focus on its interventions in Ukraine.

Challenging conventional views, the book contends that Russia's use of varied gray zone tactics is influenced by both system-level incentives and domestic-level opportunities, which are integrated here into the Incentive-Opportunity Intervention (IOI) Model. The book examines case studies including Abkhazia, Crimea, Odesa, Kharkiv, and the Donbas, demonstrating how local ethnic-based movements and perceptions of regional retreat shape Moscow's coercive strategies. It highlights the reactive nature of Russia's tactics, driven by perceived threats to its protector role, and the significant role of ethnic and political dynamics in the region. The study underscores the importance of understanding these motivations for effective conflict resolution and suggests that protecting minority rights could mitigate such interventions. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for nuanced approaches that address both geopolitical and local dynamics. Ultimately, the book calls for future research to apply the IOI Model to other great powers, enhance the generalizability and applicability of the findings, and highlight the potential for multilateral coordination in promoting minority rights as a strategy for conflict prevention.

This book will be of much interest to students and policy practitioners working on Russian foreign policy, international security, Eastern European politics, and International Relations.

Dani Belo is an Assistant Professor of International Relations and Security and Director of the Global Policy Horizons Research Lab, Webster University in St. Louis, USA.

Stephen Satkiewicz is an independent scholar with research areas spanning Civilizational Sciences, Social Complexity, Big History, Historical Sociology, Military History, War Studies, International Relations, Geopolitics, and Russian and East European history.

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