The Bitcoin Layer

Bitcoin Enters Bear Market Behavior, What On-Chain Metrics Are Showing

5 snips
Feb 3, 2026
Guest
Johan Bergman
Johan Bergman, TBL on-chain analyst who studies cost-basis models and holder behavior. He breaks down November’s regime shift and sell-the-rip bear behavior. Short, sharp takes on AVIV Ratio mean, short-term holder profit/loss dynamics, liquidation events, ETF flows, and where real support might form next.
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INSIGHT

Aviv Ratio As Market Divider

  • The Aviv Ratio Mean acts as a market divider between bull and bear regimes.
  • Trading below the mean signals a structural bear market, not just short-term weakness.
INSIGHT

SOPR Reveals Sell-The-Rip Regime

  • Short-term holder SOPR shows regime differences: green spikes in uptrends, red dominance in downtrends.
  • Recent negative SOPR indicates pervasive loss-taking and classic 'sell the rip' behavior.
ADVICE

Use Liquidity Rollovers To Time Allocations

  • Watch liquidity rollovers; they precede price declines and matter more in bear conditions.
  • Use short-term liquidity signals to avoid allocating during deteriorating liquidity.
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