The Compound and Friends

Trump Is Winning His Trade War, Michael Cembalest on 20 Years Running Research at Jpmorgan, Earnings Reactions Galore

66 snips
Jul 29, 2025
Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management, celebrates 20 years of his influential research note, Eye on the Market. He discusses memorable market trends, earnings reactions, and the lessons learned from past predictions. The conversation dives into the nuances of trade dynamics under Trump's administration, the rising influence of AI in the stock market, and the current volatility of tech giants like Microsoft and Apple. Cembalest also analyzes investor behavior amid geopolitical risks, highlighting the need for strategic decision-making.
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ANECDOTE

COVID Lab Leak Piece Shelved

  • Michael Cembalest shared an unpublished Eye on the Market piece about COVID likely being an accidental lab leak.
  • The firm shelved it due to business concerns with China despite scientific backing and expert consultation.
INSIGHT

Taiwan Blockade Biggest Geopolitical Risk

  • Geopolitical conflicts generally have limited impact on markets beyond a few weeks.
  • A Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan would be an exception with potentially massive stock market effects.
INSIGHT

Unique Yield Curve Signals in 2023

  • Traditional yield curve inversions have predicted recessions reliably.
  • The 2023 curve looked different due to low front-end real rates and corporate financial surpluses, suggesting less recession risk.
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