TWIG #307 Pokemon Game Rises, Supercell's IPO Dreams and VC Misdeeds
Nov 7, 2024
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Dive into the gaming industry's latest with a playful critique of Netflix's strange strategies and the dynamics of modern venture capital. Explore Pokémon's new mobile game and the impact of Supercell's acquisition of Space Ape. Get the insider scoop on blockbuster titles like Call of Duty and Dragon Age, while navigating the challenges creators face in monetization and user acquisition. Question the shifting focus of VC firms and what it means for aspiring game developers. It's a lively discussion packed with insights and forecasts!
Nintendo's revenue and profit decline raises concerns about releasing a new console amidst falling expectations for the Switch.
Netflix's decision to discontinue interactive gaming titles indicates a pivot toward traditional passive viewing, reflecting changing consumer preferences.
Supercell's acquisition of SpaceApe highlights its ambition to grow in mobile gaming, while facing challenges of market sustainability and IPO aspirations.
Deep dives
Nintendo's Earnings Struggles
Nintendo's recent earnings report revealed a significant decline, with revenue and net profit dropping 17% and 69% year-over-year, respectively. Analysts speculate that the company is hesitant to announce a new console due to the current performance of the Nintendo Switch, which is in its seventh year and falling short of expectations. This comes after a successful streak with titles like The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and the Mario movie, which set high benchmarks for future releases. Investors are concerned that any announcement of a new console could further dampen current sales amid already declining interest.
Netflix's Interactive Gaming Failures
Netflix has decided to discontinue its interactive gaming titles, which were intended to blend traditional viewing with participatory elements, like the Choose Your Own Adventure format seen in 'Black Mirror: Bandersnatch'. This decision signals a shift in strategy, as consumer preferences lean toward passive viewing experiences, thereby revealing that users are more inclined to simply watch rather than engage. Additionally, former Netflix Games head Mike Verdu has transitioned to a new role focused on generative AI in gaming, aiming to innovate game development processes. However, skepticism surrounding his ability to effectively lead this new initiative lingered due to past challenges faced by Netflix in the gaming realm.
Supercell's Acquisition of SpaceApe
Supercell has acquired SpaceApe Games, signifying a strategic move to bolster its presence in the mobile gaming sector with a new London office set to open by 2025. This acquisition has raised discussions about the potential implications for Supercell, particularly regarding the pursuit of an IPO and the need for an expanded talent pool to develop new games. Critics note that while this acquisition aligns with supercell's past corporate culture, there are concerns about the sustainability of such expansion amidst fluctuating market conditions. The conversation continues to spotlight the dynamics between company growth, cultural fit, and the ongoing competition within the mobile gaming landscape.
Call of Duty's Record Launch
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 has achieved record-breaking success with the largest opening weekend in franchise history, boasting increased engagement across player statistics, total hours played, and matches. Notably, unit sales surged 60% year-over-year on PlayStation and Steam platforms, further heightening anticipation for future content updates. The game also reported a significant uptick in Game Pass subscribers, though exact figures were not disclosed. Analysts have praised the smooth technical launch and the consolidation of various titles under a single platform, enhancing player experience and retention.
Concerns Around VC Funding in Gaming
Recent discussions highlight significant concerns regarding venture capital (VC) funding practices in the gaming industry. Critics argue that large VC firms prioritize quick returns through hefty management fees rather than focusing on long-term success for startups, often leading to unsustainable business practices. Many gaming startups, despite receiving large investments, find themselves encumbered by inflated valuations that hinder potential exits or acquisitions. This environment has prompted calls for founders to carefully consider their funding strategies, weighing the benefits of smaller, more involved VCs against the often misaligned incentives of larger funds.
Eric roleplays as his Old Man Yells at Cloud Halloween costume, sparing no expense at Netflix’s strange announcement and an ugly breakdown of modern venture capital. Laura tells us if Pokemon’s new mobile game looks more like Go or Masters, while Jen gives a eulogy for Space Ape. Phil raves at Call of Duties monster success and asks Nadella to release the Game Pass tapes.
00:26 Nintendo Switch Earnings Analysis
16:31 Netflix's Interactive Titles and Generative AI
20:49 Supercell Acquires SpaceApe
23:02 Dragon Age and Call of Duty Updates
31:51 Pokemon TCG Mobile: First Impressions
38:50 The Role of VC in Gaming Startups
42:09 Investment Trends and Success Stories
45:22 VC Firm Challenges + The Future of VCs in Gaming
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