Far From The Finishing Post Alastair Unwin (Polar Capital) - Investing in an AI-first World
Oct 15, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Alastair Unwin, a fund manager from Polar Capital's Technology team, delves into his unique journey from a history graduate to a tech investor. He highlights AI's rapid advancements and scaling laws while addressing bottlenecks like data and power constraints. Alastair also shares insights on capital formation for AI infrastructure, the competitive dynamics among hyperscalers, and the implications of commoditization. He underscores the need for flexible investment strategies in this ever-changing landscape, urging investors to embrace ambiguity in their decisions.
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From YouGov To Polar Capital
- Alastair described his path from YouGov to Herald, Neptune and Polar Capital as a varied grounding in bottom-up and top-down tech investing.
- He credits seeing thousands of company meetings and learning to read balance sheets quickly for shaping his investment approach.
Nonlinear Nature Of Tech Winners
- Technology change is non-linear so winners tend to win by much more and mean reversion is not the base case.
- Investors must maintain liquidity, avoid hubris, and be ready to exit losing positions quickly.
Scaling Laws Drive AI Progress
- Transformer models since 2017 enabled rapid scaling and continued improvement following observed scaling laws.
- Test-time scaling emerged later, meaning models also improve by thinking longer at inference time.