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On January 28, 2025, I sat down with Aram Shabanian to talk about how we thought the first year of the Trump administration would go. I put the audio in a vault and didn’t listen to it until now.

We focused on geopolitics and the American military and our hit rate for predictions was about fifty percent. Domestically, it’s been much worse than I expected. Abroad it’s been much weirder than I expected. The bit about America seeking violence though? Right now that feels spot on.

Hegseth’s reforms got worse for women (vindicated)
Conscription is not back (wrong)
The yearning for violence when the gloves come off (vindicated)
All the episodes that weren’t produced
Sicarioifciation continues apace
The bigger problem was that people felt bad
The dangers of boredom
“Drugs won the war on drugs and then looted the armories.”
Against burning it all down
Greenland is still on the table
The ceasefire didn’t last and war did not spread to Europe (wrong)
Elon Musk is out (vindicated)
X is still around, but it IS producing on-demand CSAM (wrong?)
WWIII and mass riots didn’t happen (wrong)
Martin O’Malley 2028?

The Cult of Sicario

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How We Thought the First Year Would Go