Rocket and space industry journalist, Eric Berger, joins Jake and Anthony to discuss their predictions for 2024, the successful launch of the Vulcan rocket, the complexity of the Artemis mission, and amusing contracts and space conferences.
Vulcan's successful launch poses a challenge to Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, introducing a new era of competition in the Western space launch market.
Dream Chaser's upcoming mission as a new company operating in low Earth orbit will impact its future use in deep space and lunar missions, depending on its success in approaching the ISS and gaining NASA's approval.
Starship's ambitious launch cadence aims to demonstrate its capabilities for NASA's Human Landing System and facilitate the launch of Starlink satellites, despite challenges in reentry and landing.
Deep dives
Vulcan's Successful Launch and Implications for the Market
Vulcan's recent launch was a major success, marking the beginning of a new era of competition in the Western market for space launches. With its impressive performance and capacity, Vulcan brings a significant challenge to the dominance of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. Although the launch has been delayed for several years due to engine and upper stage issues, the future looks promising for Vulcan, as it aims to fly multiple military missions and establish itself as a reliable and cost-effective launch vehicle.
Dream Chaser's Launch and Predictions
Dream Chaser's launch is highly anticipated, as it will mark the vehicle's first mission as a new company operating in low Earth orbit. While there may be uncertainties about its success, the focus is primarily on Dream Chaser's readiness to approach the International Space Station (ISS) and NASA's approval. The timeline for its launch remains uncertain, but it is expected to happen in the back half of the year. The success of Dream Chaser's mission would significantly impact future plans for using the vehicle in deep space and lunar missions.
Starship's Expected Flight Cadence and Priorities
Starship's launch cadence is a topic of interest, with predictions ranging from four and a half to over five flights in the coming year. SpaceX's primary goals for Starship include demonstrating the vehicle's capabilities for NASA's Human Landing System (HLS) and conducting refueling tests. Additionally, SpaceX is eager to start launching Starlink satellites on Starship. While challenges remain in perfecting reentry and landing, the availability of multiple Starship vehicles and SpaceX's commitment to development suggest an ambitious and active flight schedule ahead.
Complexity and Future of Spaceflight
Artemis is a complex mission, but it represents a step towards the future of spaceflight. By embracing reusability and refueling capabilities, Artemis aims to create a sustainable transportation system in space. It may take time and face delays, but it sets the foundation for opening up space for commercial activities and increased accessibility.
New Glenn's Progress and Competition
New Glenn, Blue Origin's rocket, is expected to launch this year, with its upper stage and first stage already undergoing testing. While challenges may arise, its successful launch would add a viable competitor to SpaceX. The competitive landscape consists of various players like Vulcan, Kuiper, and the US Space Force, each vying for a place in the space industry. The goal is to have multiple viable competitors to SpaceX, fostering innovation and pushing boundaries in space exploration.