E198: How Family Offices Construct Portfolios in 2025 w/Scott Welch

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Aug 11, 2025

Scott Welch, Chief Investment Officer at Certuity, shares insights from managing over $4 billion in assets. He discusses the importance of building globally diversified portfolios while balancing risk factors and asset classes. Scott highlights innovative strategies for tax efficiency, including market-neutral overlays that create 'tax alpha.' He expresses optimism about investing in sports teams and sailing as emerging asset classes. Additionally, Scott reflects on the Fed's influence on markets and the psychological biases that affect investor decisions.

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INSIGHT

High Valuations And Mega‑Cap Concentration

Valuations across global public markets are unusually high and there are few clear bargains today.
Mega-cap U.S. tech concentration means their performance will dominate index returns.

INSIGHT

Fed Independence Is Crucial

Maintain confidence in Federal Reserve independence and data-driven decision making.
Political pressure on Fed policy risks destabilizing long-run inflation and markets.

INSIGHT

Expect Modest Rate Cuts This Year

Scott Welch expects the Fed to cut rates in September and again before year-end.
He sees no catalyst for aggressive cuts beyond modest 25bp moves.

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In this episode of How I Invest, I speak with Scott Welch, Chief Investment Officer and Partner at Certuity, a multi‑family office managing over $4 billion in assets. Scott joined Certuity’s Board of Managers in 2020, and now leads the investment strategy and participates actively in risk management across all facets of the firm's investments, including portfolio architecture, asset allocation, investment due diligence, and manager selection We talk about what’s keeping him up at night in public markets, his views on the Fed and interest rate policy, and how Certuity builds globally diversified portfolios that balance risk factor, asset class, and geographic exposure. We also go deep into taxes, where Certuity aggressively harvests losses using market-neutral overlays to create "tax alpha" for their clients.

-- Highlights:

The logic behind all-weather portfolios—and how they protect investor discipline
Why 20–25% is the sweet spot for most families in private investments
How Certuity uses global diversification, risk factors, and asset class tilts
The rise of market-neutral tax overlays and the case for tax alpha
A CIO’s view on the Fed, interest rates, and Powell’s successor
Why Scott is bullish on sports ownership and sailing as an asset class
How Certuity sources private equity and credit managers—and the role of client networks
When they’ll use fund-of-funds and when they go direct

-- Guest Bio: Scott Welch, CIMA®, is the Chief Investment Officer and a Partner at Certuity, a $4 billion multi-family office, where he leads the investment strategy team and serves on the Board of Managers and the firm’s risk management committee. He is responsible for portfolio architecture, asset allocation, manager due diligence, and investment decision-making across client portfolios. Prior to joining Certuity in 2020, Scott held senior roles including CIO of WisdomTree’s model portfolios, CIO of Dynasty Financial Partners, and Co-Founder and CIO of Fortigent, a $75 billion investment platform later acquired by LPL Financial. He began his career with over a decade on Wall Street. Scott holds the Certified Investment Management Analyst (CIMA®) designation and certificates in Investment Strategist, Advanced Investment Strategist, and Alternative Investments from the Investments & Wealth Institute (IWI). He has served on IWI’s board of directors, the ABA Wealth Management & Trust Conference advisory board, and the editorial boards of the Journal of Wealth Management and Investments & Wealth Monitor. In 2024, he received the Wealth Management Impact Award from IWI. Scott earned a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of California, Irvine, and an MBA in Finance from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

Our Podcast now receives more than 300,000 downloads a month. Are you interested in sponsoring an episode? Please email David Weisburd at david@weisburdcapital.com.

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LinkedIn: David Weisburd: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dweisburd/ Scott Welch: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scottwelch3/

Links Certuity: https://www.linkedin.com/company/certuity/

-- Questions or topics you want us to discuss on How I Invest? Email us at david@weisburdcapital.com.

(0:00) Episode preview (0:05) Concerns in public markets and valuations (1:45) Policy framework, Fed independence, and decision-making (5:21) Fed chair's political influence and market reactions (10:12) Preparing clients for Federal Reserve changes (12:20) Behavioral finance, global diversification, and manager sourcing (18:18) Rebalancing, valuation differentials, and alternatives (22:48) Client preferences and strategies for illiquid investments (29:53) Informational alpha, taxes, fees, and sports team investments (35:40) Approaching private equity and the role of fund of funds (46:49) Streamlining Alt Plus and advice for finance professionals (49:42) AI's impact on careers and investment strategy for the youth (52:03) Best management advice and importance of strong teams (56:00) Educational system's shortcomings and closing remarks (56:57) Closing remarks