A More Cautious Fed Signals 'High For EVEN Longer' Interest Rates | Axel Merk
May 2, 2024
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Financial analyst Axel Merk discusses the Federal Reserve's recent policy decisions, hinting at prolonged interest rates hikes. Topics include inflation challenges, market reactions, China's stimulus impact, currency market strategies, and economic stability concerns. Insights on Fed communication, global market implications, and investment strategies are highlighted in the podcast.
Fed plans to reduce quantitative tightening, influencing market sentiment.
Inflation concerns acknowledged by Powell, but Fed maintains easing bias for longer.
Lack of genuine fiscal reform challenges long-term economic stability.
Deep dives
Federal Reserve Policy and Market Implications
The Fed announced keeping the policy interest rate steady at five and a quarter percent and reducing the pace of quantitative tightening, decreasing US treasuries roll-off from 60 to 25 billion a month. Although Powell acknowledged stubborn inflation, he maintained an easing bias but stated it will take longer to tame inflation. The markets reacted to the Fed's stance, with gold miners benefitting, showing a market sentiment tied to Fed's easing bias.
Inflation and Interest Rate Impact on Consumer
Powell acknowledged the severe impact of inflation on consumers, especially the weakest households. He expressed resolve to reduce inflation despite acknowledging potential pain. The Fed's assurance for lower rates in the future overlooks the current cost of living rise for consumers by flattening back to 2%. This disconnect shows a sensitive area where the Fed's plans may not fully address current consumer struggles.
Economic Stability and Fiscal Policy
The lack of genuine fiscal reform poses a challenge to long-term economic stability. Current fiscal actions and policies, including various bailouts and stimulus programs, have not addressed underlying issues. The absence of a proactive fiscal policy coupled with unclear monetary signals complicates the economic outlook and creates potential instability.
Government Policy Influences on Stability
The interplay between government policies, central bank decisions, and market responses underlines a delicate balance for economic stability. The vulnerability of policy decisions to political influences and short-term gains over long-term stability poses ongoing risks. The complex dynamics of fiscal, monetary, governance, and market forces require a comprehensive and thoughtful approach to address economic challenges.
Market Sentiment and Economic Predictions
Market sentiment reflects a cautious optimism with concerns around rising inflation and interest rates. The Fed's indications of maintaining rates and easing bias have influenced market sentiment, leading to varied reactions in different asset classes. The potential for stagflation and uncertainty around consumer strength hint at a cautious outlook despite current market highs.
Yesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.
Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in June. US Treasury roll-off will be reduced to $25 billion per month, down from the current $60 billion per month.
Above and beyond that, Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is proving more stubborn to tame than the Fed hoped at the start of the year, and that getting it down sustainably to the Fed's 2% target will "take longer than previously expected". This essentially is admitting that interest rates will stay hike for EVEN longer.
In this video, Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart to provide an immediate reaction to the Fed's guidance and take live Q&A from the viewing audience.
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#interestrates #inflation #federalreserve
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