Daily Podcast [Sep 11, 23] Sam Bendett on Russia-Ukraine & Byron Callan’s Week Ahead
Sep 11, 2023
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Sam Bendett discusses Ukraine's battlefield gains, Russia's adaptive capabilities in the conflict, Azerbaijani attack on Armenia. Byron Callan discusses factors impacting defense stock values, military modernization in Poland, and the upcoming week's outlook.
The Russian military is utilizing jamming tactics to disrupt Ukrainian forces and demonstrating adaptability in learning from past mistakes.
The replacement of Ukrainian and Russian leaders is not expected to significantly change the dynamics of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the near future.
Deep dives
Ukraine's Progress in the War
Ukraine is making progress in the war, particularly in the South, where they are pushing Russians back. However, the Russians have had time to fortify their positions, making it difficult for the Ukrainians. Both sides are engaged in tactical fighting, with the Russians heavily relying on jamming tactics to disrupt Ukrainian forces. The Russian military is demonstrating an ability to adapt and learn from past mistakes, using different systems to their advantage. While there are pockets of success, the overall adaptability of Russian forces varies depending on factors such as the commander's skill and availability of resources.
Leadership Changes and Their Impact on the Conflict
The replacement of the Ukrainian defense minister and the departure of certain Russian leaders are expected to have minimal impact on the conflict. The commitment of both sides to their respective goals remains unchanged, with Ukraine determined to push Russian forces out of its territory and Russia maintaining pressure on the Ukrainians. The changes in leadership may expose pre-existing issues within the Ukrainian military, while on the Russian side, they reveal the challenges faced during the time of these leaders. However, the overall dynamics of the conflict are unlikely to be significantly altered in the near future.
The Unprecedented Involvement of Private Sector in Warfare
The involvement of commercial entities, such as Elon Musk's SpaceX, in a military conflict is unprecedented. Previously, private sector efforts were typically part of larger government initiatives during wartime. The situation in Ukraine raises questions about the influence and impact of private sector involvement in warfare. For example, Elon Musk's decision to turn off satellite service to the Ukrainians, preventing a major attack on the Black Sea Fleet, highlights the challenges and complexities such actions present. There is a lack of established language and frameworks to address the ramifications of private sector participation in military conflicts, creating a need for further discussion and understanding of this emerging phenomenon.
Tensions in the Caucasus Region and Potential Escalation
A crisis is brewing in the Caucasus region, specifically between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijan's massing of forces on the Armenian border raises concerns about potentially encircling and starving the southern tip of Armenia. Iran has threatened military involvement if action is taken against Armenia, while Turkey has warned Iran that it would support Azerbaijan. The involvement of larger powers like Russia, Turkey, and Iran raises the question of whether this could escalate into a full-scale conflict. However, the potential economic and geopolitical consequences make a peaceful resolution more likely, despite the ongoing tensions and military maneuvers.
On today’s program, sponsored by HII, Sam Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses discusses Ukraine’s battlefield gains, how Russia is adapting its capabilities including jamming to counter Western weapons in Ukrainian hands, how changes in leadership pin both sides will impact the war, Russia’s big drone jamboree, and the implications of an Azerbaijani attack on Armenia; and Byron Callan of the independent Washington research firm Capital Alpha Partners discusses factors that are negatively impacting defense stock values including Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s holds on military promotions and assignments, the Poland’s military modernization, and a look at the week ahead with Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian.
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